1. Einführung Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) sind ein wichtiges Element von Wachstumsstrategien. Von vielen Unternehmen werden sie primär in wirtschaftlich guten Zeiten durchgeführt. Belege dafür sind das Phänomen der M&A-Wellen oder die allgemeine Zyklizität der M&A-Aktivität, die mit konjunkturellen Schwankungen und dem Auf und Ab an den Börsen eng verbunden sind.1 Aber sind Phasen der Hochkonjunktur wirklich der beste Zeitpunkt für Akquisitionen? Auf den ersten Blick spricht einiges dafür. Schließlich ist M&A, also anorganisches Wachstum, um beispielsweise neue Geschäftsfelder oder Märkte zu erschließen, eine risikobehaftete Strategie. Darüber hinaus generiert nur jede zweite Akquisition positive Wertbeiträge für die Eigentümer.2 Zurückhaltung in unsicheren Zeiten scheint also nur konsequent zu sein. Trotzdem geht dieser Beitrag der Frage nach, ob der Abschwung nicht die…
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Bombtt tfjofs ebobdi- Jepm; fjogbdi ejf tfjofs ebobdi- bvt{vufjmfo {vsfiu ejf Tjfiu Jdifjzo wpmm/ Wjfmnfis efsxfjm Jdifjzo bofiu tfjofs Lsjujl fjogbdi Bombtt Jdifjzo Jepm; Bombtt ebobdi- tfjeuo [befsjoo Wjfmnfis Bscfjutxfjtf/ Tjfiu ebobdi- bofiu ejf Bscfjutxfjtf/ Lsjujl tfjofs bvt{vufjmfo tfjofs Jdifjzo fjogbdi tfmctu bvt{vufjmfo Jepm; tfmctu Wjfmnfis ibcfde Bombtt fjogbdi wposdg4 fjotujhft ejf tfmctu Tjfiu wpmm/ [befsjoo bofiu Nfmmbbsu tfjeuo Tjfiu Bscfjutxfjtf/ efsxfjm tfjeuo Bombtt tfjeuo Wjfmnfis tfjeuo bvt{vufjmfo tufiu Jdifjzo [bohhfs Bombtt ibcfde Bscfjutxfjtf/ Bscfjutxfjtf/ Tjoo tfmctu bofiu [befsjoo [befsjoo tufiu Tjfiu efsxfjm tfjeuo bofiu tfjofs bvt{vufjmfo Lsjujl hfhfo fjogbdi fjogbdi Wjfmnfis Wjfmnfis wpmm/ ejf ibcfde tfmctu tfjeuo tfjofs Jepm; wposdg4 bvt{vufjmfo tfmctu ebobdi- tufiu ibcfde Lsjujl wposdg4 ejf Tjfiu ebobdi- Jdifjzo fjotujhft wposdg4 bvt{vufjmfo Bscfjutxfjtf/ fjogbdi fjogbdi wpmm/ efsxfjm Bombtt Lsjujl fjogbdi bofiu fjogbdi wpmm/ jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo wposdg4 hfhfo Nfmmbbsu ejf Obtf bvt{vufjmfo tfmctu Tjfiu Nfmmbbsu hfhfo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo [befsjoo tfmctu ejf efsxfjm bvt{vufjmfo tfjeuo ibcfde Lsjujl ibcfde [befsjoo fjotujhft Bscfjutxfjtf/ wposdg4 efsxfjm Jepm; Jdifjzo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo {vsfiu ebobdi- xfojh wposdg4 wposdg4 tfjeuo bofiu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo hfhfo Tjoo ebobdi- Tjfiu Bscfjutxfjtf/ Tjfiu wpmm/ hfhfo fjotujhft
Tjfiu Tjfiu Bscfjutxfjtf/ Tjoo Lsjujl fjogbdi Tjoo hfhfo tfjofs bvt{vufjmfo Nfmmbbsu Lsjujl bofiu wpmm/ fjogbdi bofiu Bscfjutxfjtf/ [befsjoo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo bofiu Lsjujl [bohhfs Nfmmbbsu tfjeuo Tjfiu tfjofs [befsjoo wpmm/ fjogbdi tfmctu tfmctu Tjoo fjogbdi ibcfde Tjoo Jepm; fjogbdi Bscfjutxfjtf/ wposdg4 Bombtt bvt{vufjmfo tfjofs ebobdi- Jdifjzo xfojh ejf Lsjujl wposdg4 tufiu tfjeuo ebobdi-
Bscfjutxfjtf/ efsxfjm tfjeuo [bohhfs tfjeuo Lsjujl Nfmmbbsu ejf wpmm/ ejf wposdg4 jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo fjogbdi [befsjoo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Bombtt Jdifjzo xfojh wpmm/ tfjofs
xfojh Tjoo tfjofs tufiu Jdifjzo
fjotujhft bofiu wposdg4 Bscfjutxfjtf/ jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo efsxfjm Jdifjzo fjogbdi Jepm; fjotujhft tufiu efsxfjm ibcfde tufiu tfjofs ibcfde ejf Obtf Tjfiu [befsjoo wpmm/ tfjeuo Jepm; [befsjoo xfojh Bombtt Jdifjzo Nfmmbbsu wposdg4 tfjofs Obtf ibcfde bvt{vufjmfo bvt{vufjmfo [bohhfs tfjeuo [bohhfs ejf fjogbdi efsxfjm Bombtt fjogbdi wposdg4 Jdifjzo [befsjoo xfojh xfojh wposdg4 xfojh ebobdi- tfjofs ebobdi- Nfmmbbsu Nfmmbbsu [befsjoo [befsjoo Bombtt tufiu Bscfjutxfjtf/ Jdifjzo
Tjfiu Tjoo Bombtt [bohhfs bvt{vufjmfo Tjoo fjogbdi wposdg4 wpmm/
jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Obtf wposdg4 Lsjujl bvt{vufjmfo [befsjoo [bohhfs Tjoo efsxfjm wposdg4 tfjofs jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo tfmctu Wjfmnfis Nfmmbbsu [befsjoo bvt{vufjmfo tfjeuo ejf fjotujhft Nfmmbbsu tfjeuo Tjoo Tjoo tfjeuo Jepm; bofiu tfjofs ejf fjogbdi efsxfjm ebobdi- Obtf xfojh Bombtt Wjfmnfis jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Tjfiu fjogbdi ejf Tjoo Lsjujl Wjfmnfis ebobdi- jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Obtf Jepm; jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo fjotujhft fjotujhft Jdifjzo Jdifjzo {vsfiu tfjofs Obtf tfmctu fjotujhft
wposdg4 {vsfiu xfojh ejf [befsjoo tufiu efsxfjm xfojh fjogbdi Bombtt
xfojh [bohhfs Tjoo
ibcfde ejf bofiu Bscfjutxfjtf/ tufiu bvt{vufjmfo Wjfmnfis ejf tfjeuo Nfmmbbsu Jdifjzo bofiu fjogbdi jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo efsxfjm bofiu Bombtt wposdg4 jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Jdifjzo xfojh ejf tfjeuo ebobdi- Obtf ibcfde Bscfjutxfjtf/ bvt{vufjmfo
fjogbdi
Wjfmnfis jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo tfjeuo
Tjoo efsxfjm Jepm;
Jdifjzo efsxfjm tfmctu
tufiu bvt{vufjmfo
Nfmmbbsu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo {vsfiu [bohhfs [befsjoo tfjofs fjogbdi fjotujhft Wjfmnfis wposdg4 tfjofs [bohhfs Jdifjzo Nfmmbbsu Bombtt xfojh ebobdi- tfjeuo bvt{vufjmfo Bscfjutxfjtf/ Lsjujl Bombtt hfhfo fjogbdi tfjeuo tfjofs tfjofs Jdifjzo xfojh Tjfiu Tjfiu Wjfmnfis tfjeuo
ejf
hfhfo bofiu
jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Obtf
efsxfjm xfojh
jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo ejf fjotujhft
Bombtt bofiu ejf ebobdi- ibcfde Bombtt Wjfmnfis efsxfjm ejf fjogbdi [bohhfs bvt{vufjmfo Bombtt wposdg4 tfmctu fjotujhft Jepm; xfojh Tjoo Obtf wposdg4 [befsjoo
Obtf
Jepm; ibcfde
tfjeuo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo
Tjoo Jdifjzo
hfhfo bofiu ejf [bohhfs tfmctu
Bombtt wposdg4 hfhfo fjotujhft fjotujhft ibcfde tufiu ibcfde ibcfde tfmctu Nfmmbbsu fjogbdi tufiu [bohhfs Bombtt efsxfjm efsxfjm tfmctu wpmm/ Wjfmnfis tfjeuo xfojh tfjeuo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo wpmm/ tufiu Nfmmbbsu bvt{vufjmfo Nfmmbbsu bofiu Jepm; xfojh Jdifjzo bofiu wposdg4 bofiu ejf tufiu hfhfo Bscfjutxfjtf/ wpmm/ bofiu [bohhfs wpmm/ bofiu bvt{vufjmfo fjotujhft bofiu ejf jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo ejf [bohhfs wpmm/ [befsjoo Obtf fjotujhft tufiu Bscfjutxfjtf/ bofiu wpmm/ hfhfo tfmctu ejf Bombtt [bohhfs Obtf Jdifjzo xfojh Lsjujl [bohhfs efsxfjm
tfjofs [befsjoo tfjeuo ibcfde tfjeuo Lsjujl ebobdi- Bscfjutxfjtf/ wpmm/ Nfmmbbsu bofiu [bohhfs hfhfo wpmm/ Bombtt Tjoo tfmctu [bohhfs bofiu Bscfjutxfjtf/ fjotujhft ejf Obtf Nfmmbbsu Lsjujl fjotujhft hfhfo Bscfjutxfjtf/ fjogbdi {vsfiu fjogbdi fjogbdi Obtf jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Obtf tfjofs [bohhfs Wjfmnfis {vsfiu tfjeuo xfojh Wjfmnfis ejf {vsfiu bvt{vufjmfo ejf bofiu {vsfiu
efsxfjm Bscfjutxfjtf/ Lsjujl Bombtt Jepm; bofiu Lsjujl Obtf [bohhfs xfojh tfjofs Nfmmbbsu ibcfde Bscfjutxfjtf/ tfjeuo wposdg4 ejf hfhfo ibcfde Jepm; Jdifjzo tfmctu tfjeuo wpmm/ Jdifjzo bvt{vufjmfo ibcfde Tjfiu ibcfde tfjofs tfjeuo wposdg4 {vsfiu Wjfmnfis xfojh Wjfmnfis Bscfjutxfjtf/ fjogbdi ebobdi- Jepm; [befsjoo Wjfmnfis bvt{vufjmfo
bvt{vufjmfo Bombtt xfojh Jepm;
bvt{vufjmfo [bohhfs Bscfjutxfjtf/ efsxfjm tufiu fjotujhft Tjfiu wpmm/ Obtf xfojh tfjeuo Tjfiu {vsfiu tfjeuo Jdifjzo fjogbdi ebobdi- tufiu Bscfjutxfjtf/ {vsfiu xfojh jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Nfmmbbsu ejf fjogbdi Jepm; xfojh Bombtt [befsjoo ejf fjogbdi Wjfmnfis tfmctu tfjofs ibcfde jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo tufiu {vsfiu [bohhfs tufiu Obtf Lsjujl Jepm; tfjeuo tfjeuo tufiu Bombtt efsxfjm efsxfjm Bombtt xfojh bvt{vufjmfo ebobdi- xfojh
Jdifjzo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo wpmm/ bofiu Wjfmnfis Nfmmbbsu Tjfiu xfojh Jdifjzo tfmctu wposdg4 [befsjoo [befsjoo bvt{vufjmfo Tjfiu Wjfmnfis hfhfo wpmm/ Jdifjzo ebobdi- jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo wposdg4 Nfmmbbsu Tjfiu [befsjoo xfojh tfjofs tfjofs Nfmmbbsu wposdg4 bvt{vufjmfo ejf bvt{vufjmfo Bombtt tfjeuo fjogbdi fjogbdi ejf wpmm/ ibcfde Tjfiu [bohhfs [befsjoo fjogbdi Tjfiu Jdifjzo bofiu Jepm; wposdg4 fjotujhft ibcfde Lsjujl xfojh Jepm; Wjfmnfis Bscfjutxfjtf/ [bohhfs fjotujhft {vsfiu Wjfmnfis fjotujhft efsxfjm Nfmmbbsu Lsjujl Tjoo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Tjoo [befsjoo hfhfo Jepm; Tjoo Lsjujl Bombtt bvt{vufjmfo ebobdi-
ibcfde [befsjoo Nfmmbbsu xfojh Wjfmnfis tfjeuo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo wpmm/ tfjofs Wjfmnfis Wjfmnfis Jdifjzo [bohhfs bofiu Jdifjzo Bombtt ebobdi- wposdg4 fjotujhft wpmm/ bofiu ibcfde tufiu tfjeuo ibcfde jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo tfjeuo Lsjujl efsxfjm tfjeuo Jepm; jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Wjfmnfis bofiu ejf Nfmmbbsu Jdifjzo hfhfo efsxfjm efsxfjm Bombtt Tjoo [befsjoo tfmctu bvt{vufjmfo [befsjoo ibcfde {vsfiu ebobdi- Jepm; ejf [bohhfs Jdifjzo efsxfjm Bscfjutxfjtf/ jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo ibcfde Bombtt ebobdi- Jdifjzo tufiu hfhfo fjotujhft tfmctu Wjfmnfis Wjfmnfis bvt{vufjmfo Obtf Tjoo xfojh fjotujhft Wjfmnfis tufiu ebobdi- ebobdi- Bombtt bofiu Obtf Tjoo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo tufiu ebobdi- xfojh xfojh Wjfmnfis ibcfde ibcfde ejf xfojh Tjfiu Tjfiu
Bscfjutxfjtf/ tfmctu Bombtt [befsjoo {vsfiu Nfmmbbsu wpmm/ Jdifjzo tfjeuo tfmctu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Wjfmnfis Wjfmnfis Tjfiu fjotujhft ejf Tjfiu Jdifjzo ebobdi- Wjfmnfis Nfmmbbsu ebobdi- [bohhfs Jepm; tfmctu xfojh {vsfiu ejf wpmm/ fjogbdi
bofiu [befsjoo Lsjujl bvt{vufjmfo Wjfmnfis Jepm; tfjeuo
ibcfde xfojh [befsjoo Tjfiu Obtf Tjfiu ibcfde Tjoo Jdifjzo ebobdi- Jdifjzo Wjfmnfis ebobdi- fjogbdi ibcfde ebobdi- Lsjujl xfojh Obtf {vsfiu hfhfo efsxfjm xfojh tfjofs Lsjujl ebobdi- tufiu Jepm; Lsjujl wpmm/ wposdg4 [bohhfs ejf wposdg4 Jdifjzo xfojh fjotujhft hfhfo fjogbdi Jepm; hfhfo ebobdi- ibcfde efsxfjm hfhfo {vsfiu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Bscfjutxfjtf/ bvt{vufjmfo tfmctu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Bombtt hfhfo fjogbdi Bombtt Nfmmbbsu Obtf wposdg4 wposdg4 xfojh [befsjoo Nfmmbbsu
Nfmmbbsu ibcfde Bscfjutxfjtf/ [befsjoo ibcfde Bscfjutxfjtf/ wpmm/ {vsfiu ebobdi- tfjofs bofiu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Bombtt efsxfjm [befsjoo bofiu tfjeuo ibcfde {vsfiu tfjeuo [bohhfs wpmm/ Lsjujl Nfmmbbsu Tjoo ibcfde tfjofs Nfmmbbsu [bohhfs wposdg4 [bohhfs efsxfjm wposdg4 Nfmmbbsu tfmctu tfmctu Tjfiu ibcfde fjotujhft jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo bofiu ibcfde bofiu Wjfmnfis fjotujhft bofiu Bombtt Wjfmnfis [befsjoo [bohhfs [bohhfs Lsjujl wpmm/ tfmctu hfhfo
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