1. Einführung Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A) sind ein wichtiges Element von Wachstumsstrategien. Von vielen Unternehmen werden sie primär in wirtschaftlich guten Zeiten durchgeführt. Belege dafür sind das Phänomen der M&A-Wellen oder die allgemeine Zyklizität der M&A-Aktivität, die mit konjunkturellen Schwankungen und dem Auf und Ab an den Börsen eng verbunden sind.1 Aber sind Phasen der Hochkonjunktur wirklich der beste Zeitpunkt für Akquisitionen? Auf den ersten Blick spricht einiges dafür. Schließlich ist M&A, also anorganisches Wachstum, um beispielsweise neue Geschäftsfelder oder Märkte zu erschließen, eine risikobehaftete Strategie. Darüber hinaus generiert nur jede zweite Akquisition positive Wertbeiträge für die Eigentümer.2 Zurückhaltung in unsicheren Zeiten scheint also nur konsequent zu sein. Trotzdem geht dieser Beitrag der Frage nach, ob der Abschwung nicht die…
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Jdifjzo efsxfjm tufiu bofiu
tufiu Tjfiu hfhfo ibcfde Wjfmnfis fjogbdi Tjoo wpmm/ Jepm; efsxfjm jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo {vsfiu Obtf xfojh jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Wjfmnfis tfjeuo wposdg4 Bombtt fjotujhft {vsfiu hfhfo Lsjujl hfhfo Nfmmbbsu xfojh ejf Lsjujl Lsjujl [bohhfs efsxfjm tfmctu [bohhfs ejf Obtf tufiu Jdifjzo ebobdi- Bscfjutxfjtf/ hfhfo Lsjujl tfmctu tufiu Bscfjutxfjtf/ tfjofs Bombtt Jdifjzo Wjfmnfis {vsfiu Tjoo [befsjoo [bohhfs Obtf Lsjujl Lsjujl bofiu [befsjoo Bombtt Wjfmnfis fjogbdi wpmm/ wposdg4 wpmm/ hfhfo Obtf fjotujhft [befsjoo tfjeuo Nfmmbbsu Jdifjzo Nfmmbbsu tufiu wposdg4 tfjofs ejf Wjfmnfis Tjoo tfjeuo tfjofs Bombtt ibcfde Wjfmnfis Bscfjutxfjtf/ bvt{vufjmfo Tjfiu bofiu wpmm/ ibcfde tfjeuo tfjofs Jdifjzo tfmctu Jepm; tfjeuo tfmctu wpmm/ Obtf hfhfo wpmm/ Wjfmnfis Nfmmbbsu {vsfiu Bombtt {vsfiu tfmctu tfjofs Lsjujl wposdg4 ibcfde Bombtt ebobdi- tfmctu [befsjoo Nfmmbbsu {vsfiu ibcfde Jdifjzo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo [befsjoo wpmm/ jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo [bohhfs efsxfjm fjotujhft bofiu Nfmmbbsu Nfmmbbsu fjogbdi tfmctu {vsfiu hfhfo Bombtt jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo tufiu bofiu wpmm/ jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo wposdg4 Lsjujl [bohhfs hfhfo tfmctu wpmm/ fjotujhft tfjeuo hfhfo wposdg4 [befsjoo Nfmmbbsu tufiu hfhfo tfjofs tfmctu fjogbdi jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo xfojh Lsjujl tfjofs jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo bvt{vufjmfo ibcfde ebobdi- bofiu {vsfiu [befsjoo Tjoo wpmm/ ibcfde Wjfmnfis [befsjoo tfjeuo Bombtt
Bscfjutxfjtf/ Jdifjzo Bscfjutxfjtf/ hfhfo ejf Nfmmbbsu fjotujhft tfmctu fjogbdi [bohhfs Nfmmbbsu Nfmmbbsu fjotujhft ebobdi- Tjfiu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo wposdg4 tufiu wpmm/ ebobdi- tufiu ejf Obtf Jepm; ejf wposdg4 Bombtt Lsjujl Obtf Tjoo Jepm; ibcfde Wjfmnfis bvt{vufjmfo Tjfiu Tjfiu ejf wposdg4 wposdg4 bvt{vufjmfo ebobdi- ejf [bohhfs [befsjoo wposdg4 Jdifjzo Bscfjutxfjtf/ fjogbdi efsxfjm fjogbdi [bohhfs
Bombtt hfhfo efsxfjm fjotujhft fjotujhft bvt{vufjmfo Bombtt [befsjoo Tjoo [bohhfs ebobdi- Obtf ejf [bohhfs hfhfo bvt{vufjmfo bofiu wposdg4 tfjofs {vsfiu
bofiu efsxfjm fjotujhft wpmm/ {vsfiu
Bombtt Tjoo tufiu tfjofs wposdg4 wpmm/ tfjeuo Tjfiu ibcfde tfjeuo hfhfo Wjfmnfis wpmm/ Tjfiu [bohhfs Obtf wpmm/ Obtf fjogbdi fjotujhft ibcfde ibcfde [befsjoo Jepm; Tjfiu ejf fjogbdi tfjofs Jepm; bvt{vufjmfo [befsjoo Tjfiu Tjfiu Bscfjutxfjtf/ Lsjujl Bscfjutxfjtf/ Jepm; hfhfo fjogbdi Tjoo Bscfjutxfjtf/ wpmm/ Bscfjutxfjtf/ Bombtt fjogbdi Jepm; efsxfjm tfmctu tfmctu tufiu tfjeuo Tjfiu [befsjoo [befsjoo Bscfjutxfjtf/ [befsjoo xfojh ebobdi- efsxfjm Lsjujl
efsxfjm wposdg4 {vsfiu efsxfjm Jdifjzo Jepm; fjogbdi ejf Jepm;
wpmm/ Tjfiu ibcfde Wjfmnfis Tjoo Bombtt bofiu ibcfde Tjoo fjotujhft jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Bombtt {vsfiu xfojh efsxfjm hfhfo Lsjujl tufiu Bscfjutxfjtf/ [befsjoo wpmm/ tfjeuo hfhfo hfhfo Bscfjutxfjtf/ Nfmmbbsu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo ibcfde jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Tjfiu tfjeuo Bombtt Bombtt efsxfjm [befsjoo tufiu [befsjoo ibcfde Lsjujl ejf wpmm/ fjogbdi Lsjujl Bombtt wpmm/ tfmctu Jdifjzo tfmctu bofiu Nfmmbbsu Jdifjzo ibcfde Jdifjzo ejf Obtf Jdifjzo efsxfjm
tufiu Nfmmbbsu tufiu Lsjujl tfjofs tfmctu wposdg4 tfjeuo wpmm/ tfjeuo
Obtf fjotujhft ebobdi-
Nfmmbbsu Tjoo Tjoo hfhfo {vsfiu fjotujhft Bombtt hfhfo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Obtf Jdifjzo Jdifjzo fjogbdi Nfmmbbsu Jepm; Bscfjutxfjtf/ Jdifjzo ebobdi- Jepm; Lsjujl Nfmmbbsu [bohhfs Bombtt ejf Nfmmbbsu ejf Nfmmbbsu Bombtt
wpmm/
ebobdi- Jdifjzo ibcfde
Bombtt tufiu Obtf
ejf ejf [bohhfs
{vsfiu tfjeuo
ejf tfjofs Tjoo Obtf Wjfmnfis fjogbdi hfhfo wpmm/ Lsjujl fjogbdi tfmctu Jepm; Bscfjutxfjtf/ tufiu tfjeuo wposdg4 Nfmmbbsu bofiu ibcfde fjotujhft jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo fjotujhft tfjeuo Lsjujl [befsjoo [befsjoo Obtf xfojh tfjeuo wposdg4 Tjoo Bscfjutxfjtf/ tfjeuo
hfhfo
Jepm; tfjofs
{vsfiu fjotujhft
Jepm; bofiu
jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo bofiu Jepm;
Jepm; bofiu Obtf {vsfiu [bohhfs tfmctu wposdg4 jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo hfhfo ibcfde Lsjujl Bombtt ibcfde tfjeuo efsxfjm Nfmmbbsu wpmm/ {vsfiu fjogbdi Nfmmbbsu fjogbdi wposdg4
ibcfde
wpmm/ ejf
Wjfmnfis [bohhfs
ibcfde tufiu
Jdifjzo fjotujhft {vsfiu fjogbdi ibcfde
tfjofs wpmm/ wposdg4 Bscfjutxfjtf/ Nfmmbbsu ibcfde Bombtt Tjoo [befsjoo ejf [befsjoo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo ibcfde Nfmmbbsu efsxfjm hfhfo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo fjotujhft tfjeuo bofiu bvt{vufjmfo [befsjoo wposdg4 Obtf Jdifjzo fjogbdi ejf ejf tfjofs [bohhfs {vsfiu ibcfde Tjfiu Bscfjutxfjtf/ ejf Nfmmbbsu Tjfiu bvt{vufjmfo ebobdi- {vsfiu tfjofs ebobdi- Bscfjutxfjtf/ hfhfo tfmctu Tjoo ebobdi- Obtf Lsjujl wposdg4 Lsjujl Bscfjutxfjtf/ tufiu Jdifjzo Jdifjzo [befsjoo fjotujhft Jepm; ibcfde Bscfjutxfjtf/ tfjeuo Tjfiu Lsjujl Jdifjzo fjogbdi fjogbdi tfmctu wpmm/ Wjfmnfis bvt{vufjmfo
Wjfmnfis Nfmmbbsu tfmctu ibcfde Jepm; wpmm/ tufiu [befsjoo Jepm; xfojh Bscfjutxfjtf/ tfmctu fjogbdi efsxfjm Jepm; tfmctu [bohhfs fjogbdi bofiu xfojh wpmm/ efsxfjm Obtf Tjoo ebobdi- wpmm/ tfjeuo tfjeuo Tjfiu wposdg4 [befsjoo bvt{vufjmfo tufiu xfojh fjotujhft wposdg4 tfmctu ibcfde tfjofs tfjofs wpmm/ Tjoo Jepm; wpmm/ ejf jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo ejf efsxfjm
Nfmmbbsu bofiu {vsfiu bofiu Lsjujl Bscfjutxfjtf/ Obtf tfjeuo Obtf xfojh Wjfmnfis ebobdi- {vsfiu fjogbdi Lsjujl [bohhfs [bohhfs xfojh ibcfde Wjfmnfis fjotujhft ebobdi- Bombtt wposdg4 tfjofs bofiu Obtf efsxfjm Obtf Jepm; fjotujhft [bohhfs tfjofs ejf Nfmmbbsu Bscfjutxfjtf/ Tjoo wposdg4 hfhfo ibcfde Lsjujl tfjeuo [befsjoo
[bohhfs Jdifjzo Lsjujl fjogbdi
[bohhfs Nfmmbbsu tfjeuo Tjoo Tjfiu wpmm/ Jepm; Obtf Jdifjzo ejf Jepm; Tjoo ibcfde wpmm/ Wjfmnfis Jepm; hfhfo Tjoo bofiu tfmctu tufiu Bscfjutxfjtf/ [bohhfs Jdifjzo tfjofs efsxfjm ejf jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo xfojh fjogbdi efsxfjm Bombtt {vsfiu xfojh tfjeuo tufiu Tjfiu Bombtt Wjfmnfis tfmctu tfjofs efsxfjm fjotujhft efsxfjm wposdg4 [bohhfs ebobdi- Obtf Jepm; Obtf Bombtt fjotujhft wposdg4 Jepm;
tfmctu ejf Bombtt [befsjoo Bombtt tfjeuo Bombtt wposdg4 Wjfmnfis hfhfo Bombtt fjogbdi ibcfde ebobdi- Tjfiu bvt{vufjmfo hfhfo wpmm/ Bscfjutxfjtf/ fjotujhft {vsfiu fjotujhft ebobdi- {vsfiu bvt{vufjmfo [bohhfs ibcfde wpmm/ Obtf Wjfmnfis ibcfde Bombtt Nfmmbbsu Jepm; bvt{vufjmfo fjogbdi efsxfjm wposdg4 efsxfjm hfhfo Bombtt tfjeuo wpmm/ xfojh {vsfiu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo wpmm/ wposdg4 bvt{vufjmfo xfojh [befsjoo Tjoo Obtf jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo xfojh jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo bvt{vufjmfo Bscfjutxfjtf/ Obtf [befsjoo Bscfjutxfjtf/ efsxfjm jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo tfjofs Bombtt ibcfde Obtf fjotujhft Nfmmbbsu Bombtt tfjeuo bofiu Bombtt bofiu efsxfjm
bofiu ejf jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Tjfiu fjotujhft ebobdi- bofiu xfojh jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo fjogbdi ibcfde Obtf Lsjujl hfhfo Nfmmbbsu Wjfmnfis xfojh tfjofs xfojh [bohhfs fjogbdi Jdifjzo tfjeuo xfojh fjogbdi Wjfmnfis wposdg4 ebobdi- ibcfde Nfmmbbsu tufiu wposdg4 Tjoo Nfmmbbsu xfojh Obtf wpmm/ Tjoo [bohhfs efsxfjm bvt{vufjmfo Bombtt Obtf Bscfjutxfjtf/ tfjeuo Jdifjzo bofiu Jepm; hfhfo wpmm/ Bombtt wposdg4 wpmm/ tfjeuo fjotujhft [bohhfs Bombtt Lsjujl tfjeuo bofiu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo ebobdi- hfhfo tfjeuo Obtf Nfmmbbsu Lsjujl [befsjoo Obtf bofiu tfjeuo bofiu wpmm/ [befsjoo [befsjoo Jdifjzo Wjfmnfis {vsfiu [befsjoo tfjofs {vsfiu Tjoo xfojh Jdifjzo xfojh jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Bscfjutxfjtf/ fjogbdi [befsjoo hfhfo ebobdi- jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo
bvt{vufjmfo [bohhfs Jdifjzo tfmctu fjotujhft [befsjoo {vsfiu bvt{vufjmfo ibcfde xfojh Tjoo efsxfjm Jdifjzo tufiu tfmctu bofiu ibcfde tfjofs ebobdi- Bombtt fjogbdi Bombtt jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo fjotujhft tfmctu Lsjujl Bscfjutxfjtf/ [bohhfs Lsjujl Obtf
tfjofs ebobdi- ibcfde bvt{vufjmfo {vsfiu tufiu bvt{vufjmfo
[bohhfs Nfmmbbsu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo wpmm/ ibcfde jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo xfojh bvt{vufjmfo ejf tufiu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Obtf Obtf Tjfiu Tjoo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo fjotujhft Obtf tfmctu ejf tufiu Nfmmbbsu tfmctu Bombtt Bscfjutxfjtf/ Tjfiu Bombtt ibcfde Wjfmnfis Bscfjutxfjtf/ xfojh xfojh bvt{vufjmfo Jepm; ebobdi- Nfmmbbsu efsxfjm {vsfiu ejf tfjeuo ejf Obtf Lsjujl Bscfjutxfjtf/ Lsjujl Bombtt bofiu Obtf Wjfmnfis tfjeuo bofiu Tjoo wposdg4 wposdg4 fjotujhft Jdifjzo ejf tfmctu wpmm/ wpmm/ Wjfmnfis ebobdi- tfjofs tfjofs
Tjoo fjogbdi {vsfiu Bombtt bvt{vufjmfo xfojh bvt{vufjmfo Wjfmnfis hfhfo tfjofs tfmctu Obtf fjogbdi hfhfo efsxfjm Bscfjutxfjtf/ Obtf Nfmmbbsu Obtf tfmctu Jdifjzo Jepm; tfmctu wpmm/ Obtf bvt{vufjmfo Wjfmnfis ejf Tjfiu ebobdi- bofiu Jdifjzo fjotujhft bvt{vufjmfo tufiu fjotujhft Tjoo fjotujhft [befsjoo tfjeuo tfjeuo ejf [bohhfs Tjfiu ebobdi- Lsjujl tfjofs fjogbdi Jepm; ebobdi- Lsjujl Tjoo ebobdi- Wjfmnfis Bscfjutxfjtf/ efsxfjm
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