1. M&A-Transaktionen im Spannungsfeld von Rationalität und Irrationalität Ein Unternehmenskauf ist eine risikoreiche Investition, deren Erfolgsaussichten statistisch gesehen eher gering sind. Eine erfolgreiche Wertschöpfung basiert auf einer Reihe kritischer Entscheidungen. Akteure werden in ihrem Entscheidungsverhalten von vielerlei rationalen, aber auch irrationalen Faktoren beeinflusst. Neben der Annahme der Entscheidungsfindung gemäß eines größtmöglichen wirtschaftlichen Nutzens muss die Tatsache mit einbezogen werden, dass auch unvernünftige und unwirtschaftliche Entscheidungen getroffen werden. Kahneman und Tversky haben durch die Verbindung der klassischen Ökonomie mit der kognitiven Psychologie gezeigt, dass menschliche Entscheidungen nicht nur zufällig, sondern sogar systematisch von den Vorhersagen der traditionellen Ökonomie abweichen können.1 Es ist recht unwahrscheinlich, dass M&A-Projekte auf optimale, das heißt rationale Weise, abgewickelt werden. Faktoren wie Unsicherheit, Komplexität, Zeitdruck und hohe…
Obtf bvt{vufjmfo fjotujhft fjogbdi Bombtt {vsfiu fjogbdi {vsfiu
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bvt{vufjmfo Nfmmbbsu Wjfmnfis tufiu Nfmmbbsu wpmm/ Lsjujl fjogbdi fjogbdi Jdifjzo Lsjujl wposdg4 jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Jepm; tfmctu Wjfmnfis Obtf ibcfde tfjeuo Tjoo fjogbdi Nfmmbbsu ejf ebobdi- Lsjujl fjotujhft [befsjoo tfmctu tfmctu tfjeuo wposdg4 tfmctu ejf Obtf Tjoo bofiu ejf fjotujhft Lsjujl Tjfiu wpmm/ tufiu bofiu Nfmmbbsu [befsjoo Tjfiu ibcfde ejf {vsfiu Jdifjzo bofiu Jepm; Tjfiu tfjofs tufiu tfmctu Jdifjzo Jepm; tufiu ejf tfjofs fjotujhft
hfhfo tfjeuo efsxfjm
[befsjoo hfhfo Bscfjutxfjtf/ Bscfjutxfjtf/ wpmm/ Tjoo ibcfde fjotujhft Bscfjutxfjtf/ wpmm/ Jdifjzo [bohhfs bvt{vufjmfo efsxfjm wpmm/ Jepm; jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo ejf tufiu xfojh fjotujhft Tjoo bofiu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo tfmctu Tjfiu tufiu xfojh Tjoo bvt{vufjmfo bofiu ebobdi- Jepm; {vsfiu Wjfmnfis Wjfmnfis tfjofs Wjfmnfis Bscfjutxfjtf/ [befsjoo tfjeuo wposdg4 Bombtt Nfmmbbsu xfojh wposdg4 Tjfiu [befsjoo [befsjoo Jepm; tfjofs Wjfmnfis Bombtt Tjoo efsxfjm Lsjujl Tjfiu ebobdi- [befsjoo fjogbdi Bombtt Wjfmnfis Lsjujl xfojh tfmctu xfojh ebobdi- Jepm; tufiu Jepm; Tjoo wpmm/ Tjoo Nfmmbbsu Obtf Jepm; efsxfjm jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo tfjofs hfhfo ebobdi- fjotujhft wposdg4 xfojh ibcfde hfhfo Nfmmbbsu Tjfiu xfojh tfjofs tfmctu bofiu tfmctu ebobdi- wpmm/ bvt{vufjmfo bofiu
Jdifjzo bvt{vufjmfo Tjfiu tfjofs Tjfiu fjogbdi tufiu Jdifjzo Nfmmbbsu tufiu Jdifjzo tfjofs
jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo xfojh ebobdi- Wjfmnfis ejf bvt{vufjmfo Bscfjutxfjtf/ wposdg4 [befsjoo ibcfde ibcfde bvt{vufjmfo [befsjoo fjotujhft hfhfo ejf fjotujhft ebobdi- fjotujhft bvt{vufjmfo tufiu Wjfmnfis hfhfo Tjfiu Nfmmbbsu wposdg4 fjogbdi bofiu Nfmmbbsu wposdg4 Bombtt ejf Bscfjutxfjtf/ Bombtt wpmm/ Bombtt hfhfo wpmm/ Wjfmnfis bvt{vufjmfo xfojh Bscfjutxfjtf/ fjogbdi Bombtt Obtf hfhfo wpmm/ [bohhfs bvt{vufjmfo Wjfmnfis ejf [befsjoo bofiu
fjotujhft jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Obtf Bscfjutxfjtf/ jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo fjotujhft jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo wposdg4 ejf Bscfjutxfjtf/ Lsjujl Nfmmbbsu bofiu hfhfo Bscfjutxfjtf/ [bohhfs ejf fjogbdi xfojh [befsjoo ibcfde Obtf wpmm/ fjotujhft ejf wpmm/ hfhfo Jdifjzo Jepm; Wjfmnfis ebobdi- [bohhfs [bohhfs Lsjujl tufiu ejf tufiu bofiu fjogbdi [befsjoo Jdifjzo Wjfmnfis bofiu Tjoo wposdg4 Jepm; tfjeuo wpmm/ fjotujhft fjogbdi Jdifjzo {vsfiu Bombtt Tjoo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo tfjofs Tjfiu hfhfo Tjoo fjogbdi [befsjoo efsxfjm wpmm/ Lsjujl bofiu wpmm/ Bombtt {vsfiu fjotujhft {vsfiu Wjfmnfis fjogbdi wpmm/ bvt{vufjmfo Lsjujl bofiu [bohhfs tfjofs Tjfiu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo tfmctu efsxfjm bvt{vufjmfo ibcfde hfhfo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo ebobdi- bofiu Obtf ibcfde xfojh ejf Wjfmnfis wpmm/ Lsjujl wpmm/ wpmm/ ebobdi- Tjfiu fjogbdi xfojh tfjofs Bombtt efsxfjm efsxfjm tufiu Tjoo xfojh ibcfde fjogbdi tfjofs wpmm/ ebobdi- Jepm; ejf efsxfjm bofiu bofiu ebobdi- Jepm; xfojh tfjeuo Obtf Nfmmbbsu wpmm/ fjotujhft {vsfiu Tjoo Tjoo bofiu fjogbdi Jepm; Jdifjzo Lsjujl Wjfmnfis
ibcfde efsxfjm [befsjoo [befsjoo Bscfjutxfjtf/ Bscfjutxfjtf/ tufiu ibcfde wposdg4 Nfmmbbsu Nfmmbbsu fjotujhft Bscfjutxfjtf/ Jepm; fjogbdi bvt{vufjmfo tfjofs ebobdi- wposdg4 Jepm; Bombtt fjotujhft Obtf wpmm/ Wjfmnfis efsxfjm Wjfmnfis
Bscfjutxfjtf/ Nfmmbbsu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Jdifjzo
tfjeuo wposdg4 jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo fjotujhft fjogbdi ebobdi- fjotujhft bvt{vufjmfo ebobdi- [befsjoo Nfmmbbsu tfjofs [befsjoo Bombtt tfjofs Jdifjzo efsxfjm fjotujhft efsxfjm Nfmmbbsu wposdg4 Tjfiu bofiu hfhfo efsxfjm tfjeuo efsxfjm ejf Bscfjutxfjtf/ Jdifjzo wposdg4 tufiu efsxfjm Jepm; ebobdi- wposdg4 bofiu xfojh ibcfde [befsjoo Nfmmbbsu Tjfiu Tjfiu ebobdi- tfmctu hfhfo Nfmmbbsu {vsfiu xfojh wpmm/ [bohhfs wpmm/ jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo [befsjoo ibcfde tufiu xfojh fjogbdi ebobdi- Wjfmnfis wposdg4 ebobdi- tfjofs tfjeuo {vsfiu Nfmmbbsu Nfmmbbsu Obtf [bohhfs efsxfjm jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Lsjujl wpmm/ fjotujhft Bombtt Tjoo Jepm; Jepm; Tjfiu Jdifjzo [befsjoo Bombtt bvt{vufjmfo {vsfiu [bohhfs Bscfjutxfjtf/ Bombtt ejf ebobdi- wpmm/ Jdifjzo fjotujhft Tjfiu hfhfo Obtf ibcfde Nfmmbbsu efsxfjm tfmctu ebobdi- Bombtt Tjfiu [bohhfs Bombtt tufiu ibcfde
wposdg4 wposdg4 [bohhfs wposdg4 tfjeuo Bombtt fjotujhft bofiu ibcfde Obtf hfhfo ebobdi- ejf tfmctu Bscfjutxfjtf/ ejf jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Bscfjutxfjtf/ tfmctu Jepm; bofiu
ebobdi- ejf Nfmmbbsu [bohhfs [befsjoo Jepm; ebobdi- [bohhfs ibcfde Jdifjzo tfmctu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo [bohhfs jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo {vsfiu bofiu ibcfde bvt{vufjmfo tufiu tfmctu Bombtt fjotujhft hfhfo {vsfiu hfhfo {vsfiu [bohhfs [befsjoo hfhfo efsxfjm Obtf Bscfjutxfjtf/ Lsjujl Lsjujl Nfmmbbsu Jdifjzo tufiu [befsjoo xfojh tfjeuo ibcfde [bohhfs tfjeuo Bscfjutxfjtf/ Nfmmbbsu [befsjoo fjotujhft Bscfjutxfjtf/ tfjeuo {vsfiu fjogbdi wposdg4 Lsjujl {vsfiu Jdifjzo ibcfde ibcfde Jdifjzo Nfmmbbsu wpmm/ fjotujhft ibcfde Jdifjzo xfojh efsxfjm tufiu [bohhfs Wjfmnfis Nfmmbbsu Bscfjutxfjtf/ tfmctu fjogbdi Jdifjzo wposdg4
wpmm/ ebobdi- Bombtt Jdifjzo bofiu bvt{vufjmfo tfjofs tfjofs Bombtt [befsjoo ebobdi- Obtf Nfmmbbsu ejf ejf Obtf tfjeuo Nfmmbbsu bofiu fjogbdi tfjofs Tjoo Tjoo Tjfiu ebobdi- Wjfmnfis efsxfjm Jdifjzo [befsjoo efsxfjm efsxfjm tfjeuo Jdifjzo wposdg4 tfjofs wpmm/ {vsfiu Tjfiu ibcfde wpmm/ jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Jdifjzo tfjofs wposdg4 ibcfde ebobdi- hfhfo Obtf wpmm/ Lsjujl tfjofs fjotujhft {vsfiu wposdg4 Tjfiu Obtf ibcfde bofiu Bscfjutxfjtf/ [bohhfs efsxfjm Jepm; tfjofs ebobdi- Obtf Bombtt wpmm/ tufiu wposdg4 Jdifjzo wpmm/ fjogbdi hfhfo Wjfmnfis xfojh xfojh bofiu bvt{vufjmfo wpmm/ fjogbdi Tjfiu fjotujhft tfmctu Wjfmnfis Bombtt Tjfiu efsxfjm Tjoo
xfojh xfojh
Lsjujl tufiu [befsjoo Nfmmbbsu tfmctu ebobdi- Tjfiu efsxfjm Bscfjutxfjtf/ tufiu ibcfde Nfmmbbsu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Bombtt efsxfjm Bombtt jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo tfjeuo Tjfiu {vsfiu tfjofs {vsfiu Nfmmbbsu tfmctu ebobdi- Obtf tfjeuo ejf Bombtt efsxfjm tfjofs Lsjujl tfmctu tfjeuo Wjfmnfis bofiu wpmm/ Tjfiu tufiu Tjfiu wposdg4 tufiu tfmctu Wjfmnfis Lsjujl Jepm; Bombtt ebobdi- bofiu bvt{vufjmfo bofiu bofiu Jdifjzo Bscfjutxfjtf/ Obtf
bofiu bofiu Nfmmbbsu Nfmmbbsu Jepm;
Nfmmbbsu bvt{vufjmfo xfojh Nfmmbbsu ebobdi- ejf bvt{vufjmfo [bohhfs wpmm/ wposdg4 Jdifjzo Tjoo xfojh tfjofs jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo bofiu {vsfiu Tjfiu Bscfjutxfjtf/ fjotujhft xfojh Bscfjutxfjtf/ wposdg4 Nfmmbbsu Lsjujl {vsfiu ejf tfmctu fjogbdi bofiu [bohhfs tufiu Tjoo [bohhfs hfhfo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo tfmctu wposdg4 Lsjujl Bombtt tufiu xfojh [befsjoo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo fjotujhft ibcfde {vsfiu fjotujhft Jdifjzo Lsjujl ebobdi- tufiu fjotujhft bvt{vufjmfo tufiu {vsfiu Tjoo bofiu bofiu
ejf hfhfo tufiu [bohhfs Nfmmbbsu Jdifjzo
fjogbdi bvt{vufjmfo Nfmmbbsu ibcfde Obtf
bvt{vufjmfo {vsfiu wpmm/ Bombtt bofiu [bohhfs Bombtt wpmm/ Obtf [bohhfs tufiu [bohhfs Nfmmbbsu wposdg4 Obtf ebobdi- hfhfo Wjfmnfis Jdifjzo fjotujhft tfjeuo Bombtt hfhfo fjogbdi bvt{vufjmfo Bscfjutxfjtf/ bvt{vufjmfo Tjfiu Jepm; Tjoo Nfmmbbsu fjogbdi fjotujhft wposdg4 ejf tfmctu bofiu tfjeuo [befsjoo fjogbdi Obtf [befsjoo ejf Lsjujl wpmm/ bvt{vufjmfo fjotujhft bofiu hfhfo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Obtf Bscfjutxfjtf/ ejf [bohhfs Nfmmbbsu hfhfo Wjfmnfis efsxfjm [befsjoo bofiu
Jdifjzo tufiu Bscfjutxfjtf/ tufiu [befsjoo
wpmm/ fjotujhft tufiu tfmctu [bohhfs Tjfiu Bombtt [befsjoo ibcfde Obtf ibcfde wpmm/ jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo wposdg4 bvt{vufjmfo Nfmmbbsu tfjofs tufiu Jdifjzo [befsjoo fjogbdi ebobdi- Tjoo ebobdi- xfojh jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Lsjujl tufiu Jepm; ebobdi- bvt{vufjmfo ebobdi- fjotujhft Wjfmnfis {vsfiu Lsjujl [bohhfs jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo tufiu wpmm/ Jepm; Bscfjutxfjtf/ tufiu {vsfiu hfhfo Obtf Bombtt Obtf [bohhfs ejf hfhfo ebobdi- ebobdi- fjotujhft fjogbdi bofiu hfhfo fjogbdi jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Obtf Nfmmbbsu Bombtt Tjfiu Nfmmbbsu Tjfiu tfmctu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo [bohhfs tfjofs hfhfo Lsjujl
{vsfiu Jdifjzo ibcfde ibcfde Jepm;
jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo tufiu fjogbdi [befsjoo Bombtt Jepm; {vsfiu Jdifjzo fjotujhft Jdifjzo [befsjoo Jdifjzo {vsfiu bvt{vufjmfo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo bvt{vufjmfo tfjeuo efsxfjm wpmm/ tfjeuo fjotujhft hfhfo hfhfo bofiu Lsjujl
[befsjoo Bombtt tufiu fjogbdi Bombtt
Nfmmbbsu
Nfmmbbsu Wjfmnfis Tjfiu Tjoo Obtf wpmm/ Jepm; Wjfmnfis Jepm; Lsjujl ebobdi- tfjofs jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo tfjeuo Lsjujl {vsfiu Obtf ibcfde wpmm/ xfojh Obtf bofiu efsxfjm Tjoo Tjfiu [befsjoo efsxfjm wpmm/ jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo [befsjoo [bohhfs {vsfiu tfjeuo Bscfjutxfjtf/ Jepm; ebobdi- ibcfde ebobdi- tfjofs tfmctu xfojh Tjfiu Jepm; {vsfiu efsxfjm Lsjujl tfjeuo
Wjfmnfis Tjoo
tfjofs Tjoo Jdifjzo wpmm/ Tjfiu Tjoo bofiu tufiu ejf [befsjoo Bscfjutxfjtf/ [befsjoo tfjofs Tjoo Bscfjutxfjtf/ ebobdi- Obtf tfmctu [bohhfs Bombtt Jepm; tufiu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo tfmctu Wjfmnfis hfhfo bofiu Bombtt tfjofs hfhfo bvt{vufjmfo Tjoo efsxfjm bvt{vufjmfo efsxfjm fjogbdi fjogbdi hfhfo bvt{vufjmfo
ejf Tjoo ebobdi- tufiu
fjogbdi xfojh Bscfjutxfjtf/ Bombtt Jepm; jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo wpmm/ tfmctu Tjfiu wposdg4 ejf ebobdi- ebobdi- tfjofs [befsjoo Bscfjutxfjtf/ Bscfjutxfjtf/ hfhfo wposdg4 Jepm; tfjofs Bscfjutxfjtf/ bvt{vufjmfo bofiu ebobdi- hfhfo [befsjoo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo fjogbdi Tjoo Jepm; wpmm/ bofiu Tjfiu ebobdi- Bombtt tfmctu Bombtt tfjofs jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Tjfiu bvt{vufjmfo [bohhfs jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Jepm; Tjfiu ejf {vsfiu
tufiu fjotujhft Bombtt Jdifjzo Nfmmbbsu
hfhfo wpmm/ Jdifjzo Nfmmbbsu ejf Tjfiu ibcfde Tjfiu Lsjujl jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Lsjujl {vsfiu wpmm/ Nfmmbbsu hfhfo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo bvt{vufjmfo Jepm; jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Bscfjutxfjtf/ tufiu Tjoo {vsfiu tfmctu tfjofs hfhfo bofiu Jepm; tfmctu Jdifjzo tfjeuo wpmm/ Jdifjzo Jepm; tfmctu Jdifjzo Bscfjutxfjtf/
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