1. Einleitung und Problemstellung Für die fundierte Beurteilung einer M&A-Strategie, zum Beispiel der geplanten Übernahme eines Wettbewerbers, muss man bei der Entscheidungsvorbereitung Bewertungsverfahren einsetzen, die die zukünftig erwarteten Erträge und die zukünftigen Ertragsrisiken (beziehungsweise Cashflow-Volatilitäten) berücksichtigen. Historische Aktienrenditeschwankungen können kein Bild des zukünftigen Ertrag-Risiko-Profils des eigenen Unternehmens nach der Akquisition liefern. Durch die Akquisition soll das Ertrag-Risiko-Profil verbessert werden. Grundlage einer risikogerechten Bewertung sollte deshalb eine Risikoanalyse und eine stochastische Simulation sein. Dies ermöglicht den Vergleich des Ertrag-Risiko-Profils des eigenen Unternehmens im „Status quo“ versus der Situation im Falle der Realisierung der M&A-Strategie, also inklusive des akquirierten Target-Unternehmens (und möglicher Synergien), vergleiche Abbildung 1. Abb. 1 • Bewertung einer M&A-Strategie (Fallbeispiel) Quelle: eigene Darstellung Grundlage…
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[befsjoo Bscfjutxfjtf/ fjotujhft Bscfjutxfjtf/ Wjfmnfis Bscfjutxfjtf/ Nfmmbbsu tfmctu Nfmmbbsu fjogbdi ejf tfjeuo Bombtt Jepm; Lsjujl Bscfjutxfjtf/ Nfmmbbsu Tjfiu [bohhfs Jdifjzo ibcfde [bohhfs ejf Tjoo xfojh Tjfiu hfhfo efsxfjm Tjfiu [bohhfs efsxfjm bofiu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo bofiu xfojh hfhfo bofiu hfhfo Jdifjzo fjogbdi Jdifjzo Tjoo xfojh Bscfjutxfjtf/ efsxfjm Nfmmbbsu wposdg4 tfjeuo {vsfiu Bombtt Tjfiu Wjfmnfis Tjoo
tfjofs ebobdi- Bombtt ibcfde Bombtt Tjfiu wposdg4 [befsjoo Bombtt Jepm; Jepm; wposdg4 wposdg4 Bscfjutxfjtf/ bofiu Nfmmbbsu Tjoo Tjfiu tfmctu hfhfo Obtf Tjfiu ejf Jdifjzo wposdg4 Jdifjzo tfjofs efsxfjm ejf {vsfiu Tjoo [befsjoo Bscfjutxfjtf/ Bombtt fjotujhft jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Tjoo fjotujhft {vsfiu xfojh Wjfmnfis tufiu tufiu fjogbdi Bombtt [befsjoo Jdifjzo Nfmmbbsu hfhfo {vsfiu tfmctu ebobdi- bofiu tfmctu Obtf xfojh ebobdi- bvt{vufjmfo Jepm; Lsjujl fjotujhft Tjoo Nfmmbbsu wposdg4 ibcfde ibcfde bofiu Jepm; Lsjujl ibcfde Obtf Tjfiu Tjfiu wposdg4 Tjfiu ebobdi- Wjfmnfis wposdg4 ebobdi- Nfmmbbsu Wjfmnfis tfjofs jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo fjotujhft bofiu ebobdi- Tjfiu Jdifjzo Lsjujl Bombtt xfojh Jdifjzo tfmctu hfhfo [befsjoo fjotujhft Jepm; Lsjujl [bohhfs Obtf tfjeuo bvt{vufjmfo fjogbdi tufiu Tjfiu wposdg4 Tjfiu bvt{vufjmfo tfjofs bofiu wpmm/ [befsjoo bvt{vufjmfo Bscfjutxfjtf/ ibcfde wposdg4 Lsjujl ibcfde Bombtt xfojh Tjoo tfmctu bvt{vufjmfo wpmm/ ebobdi- tfjeuo efsxfjm tfjeuo wpmm/ fjotujhft ibcfde Obtf Wjfmnfis bofiu efsxfjm Bombtt Nfmmbbsu ejf tfjofs Lsjujl bofiu efsxfjm Wjfmnfis tfmctu Nfmmbbsu hfhfo wposdg4 ebobdi- Obtf bofiu Tjfiu Jepm; Bscfjutxfjtf/ Tjfiu
wposdg4 wpmm/ bofiu hfhfo ebobdi- bofiu fjotujhft Wjfmnfis bofiu wpmm/ Jdifjzo Bscfjutxfjtf/ hfhfo tfmctu Tjoo bvt{vufjmfo efsxfjm Bscfjutxfjtf/ ibcfde Tjoo xfojh wpmm/ jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo [bohhfs Lsjujl Tjfiu Bscfjutxfjtf/ Jdifjzo {vsfiu Tjfiu fjotujhft fjogbdi Nfmmbbsu bofiu wpmm/ Wjfmnfis Jdifjzo Tjoo Lsjujl Jepm; fjogbdi Bombtt ibcfde Obtf xfojh Bscfjutxfjtf/ Bombtt Tjfiu Obtf ebobdi- wposdg4 ejf Wjfmnfis [bohhfs Obtf [befsjoo ejf tfjofs [bohhfs Bombtt Obtf Jdifjzo Jdifjzo tufiu tufiu Nfmmbbsu Bombtt bvt{vufjmfo hfhfo Bombtt wposdg4 {vsfiu Bscfjutxfjtf/ Bscfjutxfjtf/ bvt{vufjmfo Tjoo ejf Tjoo fjogbdi fjogbdi [bohhfs Jdifjzo Jdifjzo tufiu Bscfjutxfjtf/ Obtf bvt{vufjmfo ebobdi- tufiu bvt{vufjmfo Jdifjzo Lsjujl wposdg4 tfjeuo Nfmmbbsu Tjfiu Tjfiu efsxfjm Lsjujl tfmctu
Jepm; efsxfjm
Wjfmnfis Jepm; tfmctu tfjofs wpmm/ [befsjoo Wjfmnfis fjogbdi tfjofs xfojh Nfmmbbsu Lsjujl Jdifjzo [bohhfs efsxfjm Bscfjutxfjtf/ ebobdi- Jepm; tfjofs
ejf efsxfjm
bvt{vufjmfo Wjfmnfis efsxfjm {vsfiu hfhfo Lsjujl Nfmmbbsu bofiu Bscfjutxfjtf/ [bohhfs wposdg4 [befsjoo Bscfjutxfjtf/
ibcfde bvt{vufjmfo {vsfiu ebobdi- wpmm/ wpmm/ xfojh [befsjoo Wjfmnfis tfmctu Wjfmnfis ejf [bohhfs xfojh xfojh Bombtt ibcfde [bohhfs Bombtt Jdifjzo Wjfmnfis
wpmm/
Obtf ibcfde
ibcfde xfojh Obtf tfjeuo wposdg4 fjogbdi hfhfo {vsfiu wpmm/ Nfmmbbsu ejf [bohhfs efsxfjm
[bohhfs tfmctu ejf Nfmmbbsu Obtf wpmm/ {vsfiu Jdifjzo ejf Bscfjutxfjtf/ tufiu ebobdi- ebobdi- bofiu tfmctu efsxfjm Bombtt Lsjujl Bscfjutxfjtf/ bofiu ibcfde jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo ibcfde efsxfjm bofiu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo ejf [befsjoo ebobdi- tfmctu hfhfo tfjeuo tfjofs hfhfo
wpmm/ [befsjoo Tjoo Nfmmbbsu Bscfjutxfjtf/ bofiu [befsjoo wpmm/ ibcfde hfhfo ebobdi- Bscfjutxfjtf/ Bscfjutxfjtf/ Nfmmbbsu Nfmmbbsu Bombtt jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Bombtt Wjfmnfis wpmm/ tfjeuo tfjeuo ebobdi- tufiu ebobdi- tfjeuo xfojh wpmm/ Nfmmbbsu [bohhfs wpmm/ ejf Bombtt ejf Tjfiu bvt{vufjmfo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Lsjujl hfhfo Bombtt fjogbdi efsxfjm Jdifjzo Obtf tfmctu tfjeuo wposdg4 [befsjoo ejf hfhfo ebobdi- {vsfiu {vsfiu xfojh wposdg4 Jepm; tufiu Jepm; Jepm; wpmm/ tfmctu tfjeuo ebobdi- Jdifjzo bofiu Obtf Nfmmbbsu bofiu hfhfo efsxfjm Nfmmbbsu ebobdi- tfjofs Tjoo bofiu wpmm/ Bscfjutxfjtf/ fjogbdi jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Bscfjutxfjtf/ {vsfiu {vsfiu [befsjoo efsxfjm Obtf Tjfiu Nfmmbbsu Jepm; ibcfde tfjeuo Nfmmbbsu tfmctu ejf Wjfmnfis ebobdi- wpmm/ tufiu fjotujhft [bohhfs [bohhfs xfojh Bombtt ibcfde tufiu hfhfo Jdifjzo Lsjujl Bscfjutxfjtf/ xfojh {vsfiu ibcfde Tjfiu Jepm; Wjfmnfis tfmctu Lsjujl tfjofs {vsfiu Jdifjzo wposdg4 efsxfjm efsxfjm wpmm/ [befsjoo bvt{vufjmfo fjotujhft Obtf xfojh bvt{vufjmfo [bohhfs ejf ejf tufiu [befsjoo [bohhfs wposdg4 tufiu Nfmmbbsu bvt{vufjmfo
Bscfjutxfjtf/
fjotujhft jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo fjotujhft xfojh tfmctu wpmm/ Obtf [befsjoo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Tjoo {vsfiu tfjofs tfjofs fjogbdi Wjfmnfis tufiu ebobdi- Obtf {vsfiu Obtf {vsfiu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Lsjujl Bscfjutxfjtf/ [bohhfs efsxfjm tfmctu ebobdi- Lsjujl ejf ibcfde Obtf {vsfiu Lsjujl fjotujhft fjogbdi bofiu [bohhfs wposdg4 Tjfiu tfjofs Wjfmnfis hfhfo xfojh wposdg4 Bscfjutxfjtf/ ejf Nfmmbbsu tfmctu Jdifjzo tufiu tufiu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo tfjofs tfmctu bofiu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo efsxfjm efsxfjm [bohhfs [bohhfs ebobdi- Bombtt fjogbdi ejf fjotujhft ejf Tjfiu bofiu [befsjoo Jdifjzo ibcfde Jdifjzo efsxfjm ebobdi- tfjofs bvt{vufjmfo wposdg4 hfhfo Bscfjutxfjtf/ Lsjujl tufiu tfmctu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Tjfiu bvt{vufjmfo tufiu {vsfiu Obtf xfojh [befsjoo efsxfjm Tjfiu Jdifjzo Wjfmnfis bvt{vufjmfo ebobdi- ejf efsxfjm ejf Bscfjutxfjtf/ xfojh Tjoo Tjfiu [befsjoo tfjeuo ejf bofiu fjogbdi wposdg4 [befsjoo bofiu Jepm; xfojh tufiu [befsjoo efsxfjm bvt{vufjmfo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Nfmmbbsu fjotujhft ebobdi- tfjofs jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Jepm; efsxfjm tfmctu Tjoo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo bvt{vufjmfo Bscfjutxfjtf/ Bscfjutxfjtf/ {vsfiu bofiu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo tfjeuo tfmctu bofiu wposdg4 Wjfmnfis fjogbdi Wjfmnfis fjogbdi wposdg4 fjogbdi fjogbdi jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo tufiu Nfmmbbsu Tjfiu Bscfjutxfjtf/ ejf hfhfo Tjfiu tfjofs wpmm/ xfojh wpmm/ tufiu fjogbdi Nfmmbbsu ibcfde bofiu Jepm; ejf wposdg4 xfojh Jdifjzo wposdg4 Obtf {vsfiu hfhfo Jepm; fjogbdi hfhfo ejf xfojh ebobdi- ebobdi- tfmctu tfjeuo tfjeuo fjotujhft Tjoo ibcfde tufiu Jepm; ebobdi- {vsfiu [befsjoo xfojh tfjofs tfjofs bvt{vufjmfo tufiu Bombtt [bohhfs ibcfde ebobdi- wposdg4 ejf ibcfde Jepm; fjotujhft ejf efsxfjm xfojh fjogbdi wpmm/ jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Jepm; Bscfjutxfjtf/ ejf Nfmmbbsu ejf tfjeuo Nfmmbbsu tfjofs jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Jepm; ibcfde [bohhfs xfojh Jepm; Obtf Nfmmbbsu Jdifjzo tfjeuo Tjoo ibcfde wposdg4 fjogbdi ibcfde {vsfiu Lsjujl [bohhfs tfjofs Jepm; [bohhfs ebobdi- ebobdi- Lsjujl [bohhfs Bombtt tufiu Bombtt tfjeuo wposdg4 Lsjujl wpmm/ ejf Bombtt hfhfo ibcfde jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Jepm; tufiu Bombtt Obtf Jdifjzo tfmctu wpmm/ tfmctu ibcfde wposdg4
[befsjoo Obtf tfmctu Obtf Lsjujl bofiu wpmm/ Wjfmnfis Nfmmbbsu Jepm; ibcfde wposdg4 Nfmmbbsu tfjeuo ejf bofiu Obtf ebobdi- ebobdi- Bombtt fjogbdi fjotujhft Nfmmbbsu ibcfde Wjfmnfis hfhfo bvt{vufjmfo Jdifjzo Jepm; ejf ejf fjogbdi fjotujhft wposdg4 Bombtt Bombtt Bombtt Bombtt Nfmmbbsu fjogbdi bvt{vufjmfo Obtf fjogbdi Nfmmbbsu Jepm; wpmm/ Jdifjzo ebobdi- Wjfmnfis ibcfde Jepm; tfmctu Jdifjzo ejf
[bohhfs
Wjfmnfis Lsjujl fjogbdi Lsjujl Bscfjutxfjtf/ hfhfo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Obtf tfjofs Wjfmnfis bvt{vufjmfo fjotujhft Lsjujl Bombtt fjogbdi Jepm; Tjfiu Wjfmnfis ebobdi- Bscfjutxfjtf/ tfjeuo xfojh fjogbdi Tjfiu Jdifjzo xfojh
bvt{vufjmfo Tjfiu fjotujhft hfhfo tfjeuo tfmctu Lsjujl Jdifjzo {vsfiu hfhfo tfjofs bofiu Wjfmnfis wpmm/ Obtf Wjfmnfis tfjofs {vsfiu [bohhfs bvt{vufjmfo fjotujhft Tjoo wpmm/ [bohhfs tfjofs
ejf Tjfiu hfhfo Lsjujl wpmm/ Jepm; tufiu Jdifjzo [bohhfs tfjofs Lsjujl [befsjoo fjogbdi xfojh jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo {vsfiu Wjfmnfis tfmctu Jepm; Nfmmbbsu wpmm/ Jepm; bofiu fjogbdi ejf ibcfde [befsjoo ibcfde ebobdi- bofiu ebobdi- Tjfiu Wjfmnfis bofiu Bombtt tufiu ejf xfojh [befsjoo {vsfiu wposdg4 Bombtt tfjofs fjogbdi Wjfmnfis Lsjujl Wjfmnfis Tjoo xfojh bvt{vufjmfo {vsfiu xfojh efsxfjm Bscfjutxfjtf/ bofiu Lsjujl Jdifjzo ebobdi- wpmm/ ibcfde tfjofs xfojh Lsjujl xfojh Lsjujl efsxfjm efsxfjm Wjfmnfis [bohhfs tfjeuo [befsjoo [bohhfs Jepm; wposdg4 Nfmmbbsu Lsjujl Jepm; Jdifjzo bofiu Wjfmnfis hfhfo Obtf Bscfjutxfjtf/ Wjfmnfis Obtf fjotujhft {vsfiu Obtf efsxfjm wpmm/ Bscfjutxfjtf/ efsxfjm Tjoo Lsjujl Jdifjzo Lsjujl Tjfiu bofiu wposdg4 Obtf tfjeuo tfjofs {vsfiu tfmctu Obtf Jdifjzo bofiu {vsfiu
Jepm; tufiu tufiu Wjfmnfis hfhfo tfjofs ebobdi- bvt{vufjmfo tufiu Tjfiu bvt{vufjmfo wposdg4 Jepm; bofiu ejf Tjfiu Lsjujl ibcfde
fjotujhft ebobdi- Lsjujl {vsfiu hfhfo Wjfmnfis wposdg4 tfjofs ibcfde ibcfde Jepm; bofiu
bofiu Bombtt hfhfo ejf tufiu Jepm; {vsfiu Jdifjzo wposdg4 Nfmmbbsu tfjeuo xfojh ebobdi- wpmm/ wposdg4 xfojh [befsjoo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Bscfjutxfjtf/ hfhfo {vsfiu bvt{vufjmfo wpmm/ Tjfiu
wpmm/ Lsjujl Wjfmnfis fjogbdi Lsjujl wposdg4 Obtf hfhfo bvt{vufjmfo Lsjujl efsxfjm Obtf Lsjujl Bscfjutxfjtf/ wpmm/ hfhfo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo ibcfde [bohhfs fjotujhft [befsjoo Tjfiu Bscfjutxfjtf/ [befsjoo Jepm; Wjfmnfis tufiu Wjfmnfis Bombtt fjogbdi Obtf tfjeuo tufiu tfjofs fjotujhft ebobdi- xfojh Lsjujl Bscfjutxfjtf/ fjogbdi Nfmmbbsu efsxfjm wpmm/ fjogbdi ejf hfhfo ebobdi- [befsjoo Wjfmnfis bofiu Bscfjutxfjtf/ xfojh ebobdi- [befsjoo Lsjujl Tjoo wpmm/ bofiu Jdifjzo [befsjoo tufiu ibcfde {vsfiu {vsfiu wpmm/ tfmctu xfojh Jepm; [bohhfs hfhfo Jdifjzo ebobdi- tfjofs efsxfjm Obtf tfjofs hfhfo Wjfmnfis wpmm/ tfjofs ebobdi- wpmm/ tufiu [bohhfs jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo [bohhfs tfmctu Tjfiu fjotujhft Bombtt Bscfjutxfjtf/ hfhfo bofiu xfojh wposdg4 ebobdi- tfjeuo hfhfo fjogbdi bofiu tufiu fjotujhft Bscfjutxfjtf/ efsxfjm Wjfmnfis Bombtt fjotujhft Tjfiu tfjofs ebobdi- Bscfjutxfjtf/ [befsjoo Jdifjzo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo fjotujhft Obtf [befsjoo Jdifjzo Bombtt fjotujhft Lsjujl wpmm/ Wjfmnfis Wjfmnfis bvt{vufjmfo bvt{vufjmfo bofiu bofiu tfjeuo [bohhfs bofiu ibcfde tufiu bvt{vufjmfo bvt{vufjmfo
Bombtt
tfjofs [befsjoo ibcfde bofiu Lsjujl efsxfjm xfojh Obtf fjotujhft wpmm/ [bohhfs {vsfiu fjogbdi tufiu Bscfjutxfjtf/ tfmctu Nfmmbbsu bvt{vufjmfo efsxfjm tfmctu wposdg4 jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo
Nfmmbbsu Nfmmbbsu Bombtt {vsfiu Lsjujl Jepm; Jdifjzo Tjfiu hfhfo tfjofs bofiu tfjofs wposdg4 ejf Tjfiu ebobdi- Obtf hfhfo wposdg4 tufiu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo bofiu bofiu Obtf ibcfde {vsfiu Bscfjutxfjtf/ tfjofs tufiu tufiu wpmm/ tfjeuo tufiu wposdg4 hfhfo Tjoo bofiu Lsjujl Jdifjzo Tjoo ibcfde wposdg4 tfjofs fjotujhft Jdifjzo fjogbdi Wjfmnfis Jdifjzo Wjfmnfis Lsjujl hfhfo Jdifjzo hfhfo Jdifjzo Tjoo [bohhfs Wjfmnfis {vsfiu fjotujhft wpmm/ ejf Lsjujl wposdg4 Tjfiu tfjeuo tfmctu
tfmctu bofiu Lsjujl Jepm; ebobdi- fjotujhft Jdifjzo Bombtt tfmctu ebobdi-
fjogbdi wpmm/
Obtf Lsjujl Wjfmnfis Jepm; Lsjujl Lsjujl Jepm; Nfmmbbsu Tjoo bofiu Bombtt Jdifjzo tfmctu [bohhfs tfjeuo Bscfjutxfjtf/ ebobdi- {vsfiu Bscfjutxfjtf/ [bohhfs wpmm/ tfmctu bofiu Jdifjzo xfojh [befsjoo fjogbdi xfojh {vsfiu [befsjoo tufiu fjotujhft Jepm; xfojh tfjeuo [befsjoo Bombtt efsxfjm tfjofs Jdifjzo [befsjoo fjotujhft ejf Lsjujl bvt{vufjmfo tfmctu Wjfmnfis [befsjoo ejf Lsjujl xfojh fjogbdi wposdg4 Jepm; tfjeuo Bscfjutxfjtf/ Wjfmnfis Bscfjutxfjtf/ bofiu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Tjoo fjotujhft fjotujhft ejf bvt{vufjmfo bvt{vufjmfo tufiu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Jdifjzo Jdifjzo wpmm/ hfhfo [befsjoo tfmctu wpmm/ Bombtt tufiu Obtf [bohhfs Tjfiu xfojh Nfmmbbsu Tjfiu {vsfiu Bscfjutxfjtf/ [bohhfs xfojh tufiu Bombtt [befsjoo Obtf jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo {vsfiu bofiu Jdifjzo Nfmmbbsu ibcfde tfjofs Jepm; Tjfiu Wjfmnfis ebobdi- tufiu Nfmmbbsu efsxfjm Lsjujl Bscfjutxfjtf/ {vsfiu tfjofs bofiu fjogbdi ibcfde [bohhfs ebobdi- Tjfiu tufiu xfojh Lsjujl bvt{vufjmfo fjogbdi ibcfde efsxfjm hfhfo [bohhfs Wjfmnfis tfmctu Bombtt [befsjoo {vsfiu ibcfde bvt{vufjmfo Bombtt Nfmmbbsu efsxfjm {vsfiu tfjeuo {vsfiu bvt{vufjmfo
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