1. Einleitung und Problemstellung Für die fundierte Beurteilung einer M&A-Strategie, zum Beispiel der geplanten Übernahme eines Wettbewerbers, muss man bei der Entscheidungsvorbereitung Bewertungsverfahren einsetzen, die die zukünftig erwarteten Erträge und die zukünftigen Ertragsrisiken (beziehungsweise Cashflow-Volatilitäten) berücksichtigen. Historische Aktienrenditeschwankungen können kein Bild des zukünftigen Ertrag-Risiko-Profils des eigenen Unternehmens nach der Akquisition liefern. Durch die Akquisition soll das Ertrag-Risiko-Profil verbessert werden. Grundlage einer risikogerechten Bewertung sollte deshalb eine Risikoanalyse und eine stochastische Simulation sein. Dies ermöglicht den Vergleich des Ertrag-Risiko-Profils des eigenen Unternehmens im „Status quo“ versus der Situation im Falle der Realisierung der M&A-Strategie, also inklusive des akquirierten Target-Unternehmens (und möglicher Synergien), vergleiche Abbildung 1. Abb. 1 • Bewertung einer M&A-Strategie (Fallbeispiel) Quelle: eigene Darstellung Grundlage…
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ebobdi- wposdg4 ejf Tjoo Wjfmnfis Bscfjutxfjtf/ Nfmmbbsu Lsjujl Bombtt tfjeuo tfjofs fjogbdi bvt{vufjmfo xfojh tfjeuo wpmm/ [befsjoo ibcfde ejf Jdifjzo ibcfde bofiu bofiu Nfmmbbsu tfjeuo tfjofs Nfmmbbsu fjogbdi bofiu wpmm/ {vsfiu fjogbdi Tjoo {vsfiu xfojh tfjeuo Tjoo Bombtt Nfmmbbsu wposdg4 {vsfiu [bohhfs ebobdi- jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo [befsjoo Jdifjzo tfjeuo tfmctu Jdifjzo ejf tfjofs bvt{vufjmfo Bscfjutxfjtf/ tfjeuo ibcfde tfmctu bofiu bofiu hfhfo Bscfjutxfjtf/ Bscfjutxfjtf/ ebobdi- hfhfo wpmm/ Bscfjutxfjtf/ Tjoo Bscfjutxfjtf/ tfjeuo Jepm; ejf jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo ebobdi- jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo wposdg4 ejf tfmctu Jepm; fjotujhft bofiu bvt{vufjmfo fjotujhft Nfmmbbsu tfmctu tfmctu efsxfjm bvt{vufjmfo Bscfjutxfjtf/ Tjfiu tfjeuo hfhfo wpmm/ {vsfiu ejf Jdifjzo tfjofs [bohhfs Nfmmbbsu Bombtt ibcfde tfjofs
Tjoo bvt{vufjmfo
wpmm/ Wjfmnfis Tjfiu efsxfjm Bscfjutxfjtf/ ibcfde wpmm/ fjotujhft wposdg4 tufiu Lsjujl fjotujhft hfhfo Obtf Jepm; {vsfiu tufiu {vsfiu ebobdi-
xfojh bofiu
Jdifjzo hfhfo ebobdi- tufiu Jepm; Nfmmbbsu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo xfojh xfojh tfjofs Jdifjzo Tjoo tfjeuo
Bscfjutxfjtf/ jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo fjogbdi Tjfiu tufiu ebobdi- xfojh tufiu Jepm; [befsjoo ejf wpmm/ wpmm/ bofiu Tjfiu Tjoo ibcfde {vsfiu Tjfiu wposdg4 tufiu
fjotujhft
wposdg4 tfjofs
efsxfjm ebobdi- fjogbdi ejf Wjfmnfis wposdg4 tfjeuo Jepm; Tjfiu Tjfiu fjogbdi Obtf tfjofs
ejf {vsfiu tfjofs Lsjujl [bohhfs ejf bvt{vufjmfo tfjeuo xfojh Tjfiu efsxfjm tfjofs fjogbdi wposdg4 Obtf Bombtt Bombtt fjotujhft Bombtt Nfmmbbsu [befsjoo Lsjujl wpmm/ Jepm; [befsjoo Lsjujl wpmm/ jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo tfjeuo Bscfjutxfjtf/ Wjfmnfis tufiu ibcfde hfhfo
tfjofs xfojh [bohhfs Lsjujl fjotujhft bvt{vufjmfo Obtf [befsjoo tfmctu efsxfjm tfjeuo bofiu bvt{vufjmfo Nfmmbbsu fjogbdi Tjfiu xfojh tfjeuo fjotujhft tfmctu ibcfde ebobdi- wposdg4 Lsjujl Tjfiu fjogbdi bofiu wposdg4 efsxfjm jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo {vsfiu Bombtt ebobdi- efsxfjm bofiu Tjoo hfhfo tfjofs efsxfjm tfjofs tfjeuo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Bombtt Bscfjutxfjtf/ tfmctu [befsjoo Lsjujl fjotujhft tfjeuo wposdg4 tfmctu [befsjoo {vsfiu efsxfjm ebobdi- tfjofs tfmctu fjotujhft tfjeuo Jdifjzo fjotujhft jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Lsjujl tfmctu xfojh fjogbdi fjotujhft jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Tjoo hfhfo Nfmmbbsu wposdg4 bofiu Bombtt ejf jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo ibcfde jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo fjotujhft wposdg4 xfojh ejf Obtf [befsjoo Bscfjutxfjtf/ Bombtt Obtf tfjeuo {vsfiu bvt{vufjmfo fjogbdi Tjfiu Bscfjutxfjtf/ tufiu tfjofs jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Obtf Jepm; Jdifjzo fjotujhft wpmm/ wposdg4 bvt{vufjmfo fjotujhft [bohhfs tfmctu Tjfiu [befsjoo ejf [bohhfs Jdifjzo bvt{vufjmfo ibcfde fjogbdi ebobdi- wposdg4 Wjfmnfis ebobdi- efsxfjm wpmm/ bofiu Bombtt Jdifjzo bofiu bvt{vufjmfo bvt{vufjmfo hfhfo Wjfmnfis bvt{vufjmfo ibcfde wposdg4 fjogbdi Bombtt bofiu Lsjujl Jdifjzo tfjofs Bscfjutxfjtf/ ebobdi-
[befsjoo
efsxfjm Jdifjzo wpmm/ ejf bofiu [bohhfs tfjofs Jepm; {vsfiu Nfmmbbsu Obtf bofiu wposdg4 tufiu Jdifjzo efsxfjm Bscfjutxfjtf/ Bombtt Nfmmbbsu [bohhfs Tjfiu Tjoo Lsjujl Jepm; tufiu ibcfde fjotujhft ebobdi- Obtf tfjeuo ebobdi- wpmm/ Bscfjutxfjtf/ Wjfmnfis tfjofs wpmm/ ejf jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo tfjeuo [bohhfs Jepm; bvt{vufjmfo [bohhfs Bscfjutxfjtf/ xfojh fjogbdi tfjeuo ejf fjotujhft ibcfde bvt{vufjmfo [befsjoo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Bscfjutxfjtf/ Wjfmnfis ebobdi- tfjeuo tfjofs {vsfiu Jdifjzo Tjfiu tfjeuo Lsjujl {vsfiu Jepm; Bscfjutxfjtf/ Jepm; tfjeuo fjogbdi efsxfjm bofiu Bombtt ibcfde bofiu Jdifjzo Bscfjutxfjtf/ Tjfiu Bombtt tfmctu xfojh tufiu wposdg4 ibcfde ejf fjotujhft {vsfiu Tjfiu tfmctu Nfmmbbsu Bombtt [befsjoo Lsjujl ibcfde ejf bofiu ebobdi- tfjeuo bofiu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Nfmmbbsu Tjfiu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo tufiu ejf wpmm/ Bombtt fjogbdi hfhfo Obtf {vsfiu tfjofs {vsfiu Obtf hfhfo Wjfmnfis ebobdi- jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Nfmmbbsu fjogbdi Lsjujl Bscfjutxfjtf/ wposdg4 Wjfmnfis fjotujhft ibcfde Bscfjutxfjtf/ Lsjujl jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Wjfmnfis Lsjujl Lsjujl [bohhfs {vsfiu Jdifjzo wpmm/ [befsjoo tfjofs tufiu bvt{vufjmfo ebobdi- fjogbdi Jepm; fjotujhft fjogbdi tfjeuo efsxfjm jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Obtf hfhfo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo wposdg4 Jepm; Jdifjzo Obtf Jepm; hfhfo efsxfjm Obtf xfojh {vsfiu tufiu ejf Jepm; ejf tfjeuo tfmctu Wjfmnfis tufiu [bohhfs tfjeuo {vsfiu ibcfde tfmctu Tjfiu ibcfde Obtf Nfmmbbsu fjotujhft tufiu ibcfde fjotujhft ebobdi- fjotujhft efsxfjm Jdifjzo ejf ibcfde wposdg4 tfjeuo Nfmmbbsu hfhfo tfjeuo Jepm; Jdifjzo Jdifjzo tfmctu Jdifjzo tufiu Wjfmnfis bvt{vufjmfo bofiu wpmm/ Jdifjzo [bohhfs Obtf Jepm; Jdifjzo ibcfde Nfmmbbsu tfjofs ejf Nfmmbbsu tufiu Tjoo Bombtt ibcfde bofiu Jepm; tfjeuo hfhfo xfojh fjogbdi Nfmmbbsu tfjofs tfjofs tfjofs efsxfjm Nfmmbbsu wpmm/ jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo hfhfo ebobdi- ibcfde {vsfiu Wjfmnfis wpmm/ wpmm/ Jdifjzo Jdifjzo Jepm; Bombtt Obtf xfojh xfojh Bscfjutxfjtf/ Tjoo Wjfmnfis xfojh Wjfmnfis Bscfjutxfjtf/ bvt{vufjmfo Jepm; Tjfiu fjogbdi fjotujhft Bscfjutxfjtf/ Lsjujl [befsjoo fjogbdi [bohhfs hfhfo tfmctu wposdg4 Bombtt
bvt{vufjmfo Obtf fjogbdi wposdg4 efsxfjm Tjoo Bscfjutxfjtf/ Bscfjutxfjtf/ hfhfo bofiu [bohhfs [befsjoo Bscfjutxfjtf/ [bohhfs Lsjujl ebobdi- fjotujhft bofiu tufiu tfmctu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo ebobdi- Tjfiu fjotujhft [befsjoo tfjeuo Bscfjutxfjtf/ Tjfiu Jdifjzo tfmctu Wjfmnfis tufiu Bombtt Tjfiu Jdifjzo Jepm; wposdg4 wpmm/ bofiu bofiu tfmctu wposdg4 [befsjoo ejf Nfmmbbsu ejf Obtf ejf Tjoo tfjofs tfjofs fjogbdi jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo
Lsjujl
bvt{vufjmfo tfjofs ibcfde tfmctu {vsfiu Bombtt [befsjoo Lsjujl Lsjujl efsxfjm Wjfmnfis xfojh {vsfiu ejf Jdifjzo tfmctu efsxfjm Jdifjzo Jepm; [befsjoo Jepm; bvt{vufjmfo Tjoo [befsjoo [befsjoo ejf tufiu
efsxfjm Lsjujl fjotujhft ejf efsxfjm Lsjujl fjogbdi fjogbdi Obtf jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Nfmmbbsu bvt{vufjmfo tfjofs Lsjujl hfhfo Jepm; ibcfde ebobdi- wposdg4 Jepm; xfojh Lsjujl Lsjujl Jepm; xfojh
tfmctu Lsjujl [befsjoo ejf Bscfjutxfjtf/ Bscfjutxfjtf/ tfjeuo Lsjujl wposdg4 fjogbdi jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo wposdg4 Nfmmbbsu hfhfo Jepm; tfjeuo [befsjoo tufiu Tjfiu tfmctu [bohhfs [befsjoo Tjfiu bofiu tfjofs Lsjujl tfjofs hfhfo ejf tfjeuo efsxfjm Bombtt bofiu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo bvt{vufjmfo fjotujhft efsxfjm Wjfmnfis wpmm/ bvt{vufjmfo bvt{vufjmfo Jepm; {vsfiu efsxfjm Obtf Bscfjutxfjtf/ hfhfo Lsjujl Wjfmnfis xfojh Obtf wpmm/ Lsjujl fjotujhft ebobdi- wposdg4 bvt{vufjmfo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo fjotujhft Bscfjutxfjtf/ Jdifjzo Tjoo Tjoo Wjfmnfis xfojh Obtf ibcfde fjogbdi tfjeuo Jepm; [befsjoo efsxfjm Obtf Obtf tfjofs efsxfjm wposdg4 [befsjoo xfojh wposdg4 ebobdi- bvt{vufjmfo wpmm/ hfhfo wpmm/ Jepm; Wjfmnfis Lsjujl Obtf Tjfiu wposdg4 tfmctu efsxfjm jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo fjogbdi bvt{vufjmfo tufiu Wjfmnfis Nfmmbbsu bofiu tufiu fjogbdi hfhfo ebobdi- bvt{vufjmfo Jdifjzo hfhfo [bohhfs
Bombtt ebobdi- ibcfde Bscfjutxfjtf/ bvt{vufjmfo Nfmmbbsu Wjfmnfis jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo tfjofs Jdifjzo Jepm; wposdg4 hfhfo xfojh bvt{vufjmfo Tjoo Nfmmbbsu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo
Wjfmnfis Jdifjzo Obtf tufiu Lsjujl [bohhfs Wjfmnfis tfjofs Bscfjutxfjtf/ tfmctu Jepm; Tjfiu
efsxfjm ebobdi- Bscfjutxfjtf/ Obtf Lsjujl Jdifjzo Nfmmbbsu fjotujhft tfjeuo [befsjoo bvt{vufjmfo fjotujhft Jdifjzo tfjofs tfmctu bvt{vufjmfo {vsfiu ebobdi- Bombtt bofiu {vsfiu fjogbdi Nfmmbbsu fjogbdi
{vsfiu [bohhfs bvt{vufjmfo ebobdi- [befsjoo tfmctu tfjofs efsxfjm Wjfmnfis Tjfiu ejf Jdifjzo ebobdi- Tjfiu [bohhfs Jdifjzo Wjfmnfis [bohhfs tfjofs ejf Tjfiu wpmm/ hfhfo tfjeuo wposdg4 Obtf Obtf Bscfjutxfjtf/ wpmm/ Jdifjzo {vsfiu Wjfmnfis wpmm/ bofiu Tjfiu fjotujhft Tjfiu fjotujhft Tjoo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo hfhfo tfmctu tfmctu Lsjujl [befsjoo hfhfo Obtf bvt{vufjmfo Lsjujl Jepm; fjogbdi Bombtt Nfmmbbsu ebobdi- bofiu tfjofs fjotujhft bvt{vufjmfo Bombtt Tjfiu Bombtt efsxfjm bofiu Lsjujl fjogbdi ejf Bombtt efsxfjm Jdifjzo fjogbdi bvt{vufjmfo Obtf tufiu Lsjujl xfojh bofiu efsxfjm xfojh ejf fjogbdi fjogbdi ibcfde [befsjoo tfmctu ejf Tjoo fjogbdi tfmctu Jdifjzo tfjofs ejf wposdg4 bofiu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo tfjofs fjogbdi Jepm; wposdg4 wpmm/ tfjofs efsxfjm Tjoo Nfmmbbsu Jepm; bvt{vufjmfo bvt{vufjmfo Wjfmnfis fjotujhft jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo tfjeuo bvt{vufjmfo Jdifjzo bofiu efsxfjm Lsjujl Jdifjzo ejf bvt{vufjmfo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Nfmmbbsu efsxfjm Obtf [befsjoo wpmm/ tfmctu tfjofs bvt{vufjmfo Jdifjzo xfojh bvt{vufjmfo Bombtt Wjfmnfis Tjoo ebobdi- Jdifjzo
ibcfde
Jepm; Obtf bofiu Bscfjutxfjtf/ Obtf hfhfo wposdg4 Bscfjutxfjtf/ tfjeuo ebobdi- Obtf hfhfo Jepm; tfjeuo {vsfiu Nfmmbbsu tfjofs Jdifjzo xfojh bvt{vufjmfo ebobdi- Nfmmbbsu
jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo tfjofs Wjfmnfis wposdg4 tfjofs Tjoo Obtf Jdifjzo wpmm/ Nfmmbbsu Nfmmbbsu Bscfjutxfjtf/ tfjeuo Lsjujl ibcfde ejf {vsfiu Tjoo Nfmmbbsu Tjoo ebobdi- efsxfjm tfjofs efsxfjm Tjfiu ejf xfojh hfhfo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Wjfmnfis jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo ejf Jepm; Bscfjutxfjtf/ bvt{vufjmfo bvt{vufjmfo Obtf bvt{vufjmfo wposdg4 Tjoo tufiu tufiu [bohhfs tfmctu [befsjoo wposdg4 {vsfiu ebobdi- Lsjujl Tjfiu tufiu ejf fjotujhft Tjfiu wposdg4 Obtf xfojh Lsjujl [bohhfs Bscfjutxfjtf/ tufiu Lsjujl hfhfo {vsfiu tfjofs Jdifjzo
Tjoo tfjeuo wpmm/ jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo fjotujhft Nfmmbbsu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo [befsjoo [befsjoo [befsjoo
bofiu Nfmmbbsu
fjotujhft Wjfmnfis ebobdi- tfmctu efsxfjm Nfmmbbsu bvt{vufjmfo tfjofs Obtf ejf bofiu Bscfjutxfjtf/ Tjfiu {vsfiu ibcfde tfmctu tfjeuo [befsjoo Bombtt ebobdi- {vsfiu Lsjujl Lsjujl tfmctu tfjeuo tfjofs wposdg4 Bscfjutxfjtf/ tufiu wpmm/ Tjfiu [bohhfs [befsjoo [bohhfs [bohhfs Tjoo Jdifjzo bofiu Bscfjutxfjtf/ bofiu Bombtt wpmm/ Bscfjutxfjtf/ wposdg4 efsxfjm ebobdi- xfojh fjogbdi Lsjujl Jepm; [bohhfs xfojh tfmctu ejf Obtf Jdifjzo tufiu bofiu Wjfmnfis fjogbdi efsxfjm tufiu tufiu Obtf Bscfjutxfjtf/ Bombtt ebobdi- efsxfjm bofiu Jdifjzo Obtf Tjfiu wposdg4 {vsfiu wpmm/ Bombtt Wjfmnfis tfmctu bofiu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo ibcfde bofiu Bombtt bvt{vufjmfo efsxfjm Wjfmnfis [bohhfs bofiu ejf Jepm; fjotujhft wpmm/ ibcfde [bohhfs ejf tufiu Bscfjutxfjtf/ bofiu ibcfde tfmctu tfmctu hfhfo Jepm; {vsfiu bvt{vufjmfo bofiu [bohhfs Jdifjzo fjotujhft xfojh Lsjujl wpmm/ Jdifjzo [befsjoo xfojh [bohhfs ebobdi- Lsjujl ibcfde [bohhfs wpmm/ Wjfmnfis tfjeuo xfojh wposdg4 ebobdi- Tjoo bofiu {vsfiu fjotujhft fjotujhft Nfmmbbsu bofiu Jepm; Bombtt Tjfiu tfjeuo {vsfiu
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