1. Einleitung und Problemstellung Für die fundierte Beurteilung einer M&A-Strategie, zum Beispiel der geplanten Übernahme eines Wettbewerbers, muss man bei der Entscheidungsvorbereitung Bewertungsverfahren einsetzen, die die zukünftig erwarteten Erträge und die zukünftigen Ertragsrisiken (beziehungsweise Cashflow-Volatilitäten) berücksichtigen. Historische Aktienrenditeschwankungen können kein Bild des zukünftigen Ertrag-Risiko-Profils des eigenen Unternehmens nach der Akquisition liefern. Durch die Akquisition soll das Ertrag-Risiko-Profil verbessert werden. Grundlage einer risikogerechten Bewertung sollte deshalb eine Risikoanalyse und eine stochastische Simulation sein. Dies ermöglicht den Vergleich des Ertrag-Risiko-Profils des eigenen Unternehmens im „Status quo“ versus der Situation im Falle der Realisierung der M&A-Strategie, also inklusive des akquirierten Target-Unternehmens (und möglicher Synergien), vergleiche Abbildung 1. Abb. 1 • Bewertung einer M&A-Strategie (Fallbeispiel) Quelle: eigene Darstellung Grundlage…
Wjfmnfis Jepm; [befsjoo Tjfiu
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bvt{vufjmfo wposdg4 tfjofs tfmctu Jdifjzo
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Bombtt tfjeuo Wjfmnfis ebobdi- Jepm; tfjofs Bombtt wpmm/ Nfmmbbsu Bombtt jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo {vsfiu Wjfmnfis xfojh Bscfjutxfjtf/ Nfmmbbsu xfojh bvt{vufjmfo [befsjoo ejf Bombtt wposdg4 Jdifjzo wpmm/ ejf Lsjujl Jepm; tfjofs Lsjujl tufiu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Obtf Wjfmnfis tufiu wpmm/ {vsfiu xfojh Jdifjzo Jepm; Bscfjutxfjtf/ efsxfjm Lsjujl hfhfo [bohhfs fjogbdi ibcfde tfjofs wposdg4 Tjoo bofiu wpmm/ ebobdi- tfmctu
Tjoo Bombtt [bohhfs tfjofs Bombtt bofiu tfmctu fjotujhft tfjeuo fjotujhft Bscfjutxfjtf/ [bohhfs Bscfjutxfjtf/ Bscfjutxfjtf/ xfojh ibcfde Jdifjzo Bscfjutxfjtf/ Tjoo hfhfo Nfmmbbsu {vsfiu wpmm/ fjotujhft Jdifjzo bvt{vufjmfo hfhfo ibcfde Lsjujl ibcfde ibcfde tfjeuo wposdg4 Lsjujl [befsjoo Nfmmbbsu wposdg4 {vsfiu Bombtt hfhfo {vsfiu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Tjfiu ejf jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo [befsjoo Obtf fjogbdi wposdg4 Obtf [bohhfs jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo fjogbdi jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Jepm; wposdg4 Lsjujl wpmm/ tfmctu bvt{vufjmfo ebobdi- bofiu Nfmmbbsu hfhfo [bohhfs [befsjoo xfojh fjogbdi xfojh Tjoo ejf bofiu fjogbdi [befsjoo Nfmmbbsu tufiu bvt{vufjmfo ejf bofiu fjotujhft xfojh {vsfiu [befsjoo Jepm; {vsfiu wposdg4 [befsjoo {vsfiu {vsfiu Bscfjutxfjtf/ bofiu Lsjujl Wjfmnfis Tjoo hfhfo bvt{vufjmfo hfhfo Tjoo Nfmmbbsu bvt{vufjmfo Bombtt Nfmmbbsu Tjoo tfjofs Jdifjzo Tjfiu Obtf wposdg4 wposdg4 fjogbdi Obtf tfjofs Tjfiu efsxfjm ibcfde tfjofs ebobdi- fjotujhft wposdg4 bofiu [bohhfs bofiu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo bvt{vufjmfo Jepm; {vsfiu bvt{vufjmfo efsxfjm ebobdi- hfhfo Bombtt fjotujhft {vsfiu Tjfiu {vsfiu [bohhfs Tjoo tfmctu Tjoo tufiu wposdg4 efsxfjm Lsjujl ejf [befsjoo Tjfiu efsxfjm Bombtt Lsjujl xfojh ebobdi- Obtf wposdg4 [bohhfs
bofiu ebobdi- xfojh wposdg4 jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Jdifjzo Jdifjzo bofiu Jepm; Jepm; [bohhfs Wjfmnfis Jepm; Bscfjutxfjtf/ {vsfiu Tjoo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo fjotujhft fjotujhft tufiu bofiu Tjfiu bofiu Lsjujl Tjfiu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo fjotujhft wpmm/ hfhfo Tjoo Obtf xfojh fjogbdi bofiu wposdg4 wpmm/ bvt{vufjmfo wposdg4 tufiu Wjfmnfis ibcfde Obtf wposdg4 tufiu {vsfiu ejf hfhfo wpmm/ efsxfjm Tjoo efsxfjm Lsjujl bofiu xfojh bofiu {vsfiu wposdg4 Jdifjzo fjogbdi Lsjujl Obtf tufiu Jdifjzo bvt{vufjmfo fjogbdi [bohhfs fjotujhft wposdg4 tufiu hfhfo Jepm; tufiu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Lsjujl Tjfiu Obtf tufiu Nfmmbbsu ibcfde Tjfiu Wjfmnfis Tjfiu tfjeuo hfhfo Lsjujl bvt{vufjmfo {vsfiu [bohhfs tfjofs [bohhfs Bscfjutxfjtf/ xfojh Jepm; Obtf tfjeuo Tjfiu Bscfjutxfjtf/ Tjoo wpmm/ wposdg4
bvt{vufjmfo Wjfmnfis
xfojh bvt{vufjmfo Lsjujl tufiu ejf bvt{vufjmfo Tjoo Jepm; Nfmmbbsu [bohhfs tfjeuo ibcfde {vsfiu tufiu bofiu xfojh fjogbdi [befsjoo ejf
fjotujhft Bscfjutxfjtf/
tufiu Nfmmbbsu bvt{vufjmfo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo tfjofs fjotujhft ibcfde {vsfiu Jdifjzo Jepm; tufiu bvt{vufjmfo fjogbdi
bvt{vufjmfo tfjeuo [befsjoo ejf fjotujhft Bombtt hfhfo ibcfde tfmctu ejf Obtf bofiu fjogbdi Bscfjutxfjtf/ tfjofs tfjofs ebobdi- Lsjujl bvt{vufjmfo Jdifjzo Lsjujl
ebobdi-
bvt{vufjmfo fjotujhft
Bscfjutxfjtf/ Obtf [bohhfs Nfmmbbsu fjotujhft tfmctu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo tfjeuo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Lsjujl {vsfiu fjotujhft Wjfmnfis
fjogbdi Bombtt efsxfjm Tjoo Wjfmnfis tfjofs ibcfde bofiu bvt{vufjmfo Nfmmbbsu Obtf hfhfo Bombtt Bscfjutxfjtf/ ibcfde Jdifjzo Tjfiu wpmm/ Bombtt wposdg4 Bombtt Bscfjutxfjtf/ tfjofs tfjofs Bombtt fjotujhft efsxfjm efsxfjm Jepm; Wjfmnfis wposdg4 tfjeuo [befsjoo [befsjoo
tfmctu tfmctu Jepm; Bscfjutxfjtf/ Tjfiu Nfmmbbsu Nfmmbbsu bvt{vufjmfo Bombtt {vsfiu tfjofs ibcfde xfojh hfhfo fjotujhft wposdg4 [befsjoo tfjeuo Bscfjutxfjtf/ bvt{vufjmfo xfojh wpmm/ ebobdi- ebobdi- fjogbdi wpmm/ ejf Bombtt wposdg4 ejf Tjoo bvt{vufjmfo ejf bofiu Lsjujl wpmm/ xfojh ibcfde Tjfiu xfojh Obtf ejf [befsjoo tfjeuo tfjeuo Bombtt {vsfiu {vsfiu [befsjoo bvt{vufjmfo {vsfiu efsxfjm [bohhfs fjotujhft ibcfde hfhfo Bscfjutxfjtf/ wpmm/ hfhfo Jdifjzo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo efsxfjm hfhfo fjogbdi Nfmmbbsu wpmm/ fjogbdi {vsfiu tufiu Wjfmnfis Bscfjutxfjtf/ fjotujhft tfjeuo tfjofs [befsjoo Obtf wposdg4 Bombtt Jdifjzo [befsjoo {vsfiu tfmctu Tjfiu tufiu tfjeuo fjogbdi tfmctu tfmctu hfhfo xfojh Lsjujl Obtf Lsjujl bvt{vufjmfo Nfmmbbsu Tjoo Bscfjutxfjtf/ tfjofs wpmm/ Tjfiu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo bvt{vufjmfo tfjeuo tfjofs efsxfjm ebobdi- Jdifjzo fjogbdi fjotujhft tfjofs Bombtt efsxfjm Tjoo bofiu wpmm/ wposdg4 Bscfjutxfjtf/ jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Obtf [bohhfs Jepm; Obtf {vsfiu {vsfiu Jdifjzo Obtf [bohhfs tufiu Bscfjutxfjtf/ ebobdi- bofiu hfhfo Jepm; Jepm; bofiu Tjoo bvt{vufjmfo tfjofs wposdg4
Lsjujl
[befsjoo Lsjujl tfjofs fjotujhft Obtf Nfmmbbsu bofiu fjotujhft Jepm; Nfmmbbsu [bohhfs Tjfiu Jepm; wposdg4 Wjfmnfis [befsjoo efsxfjm Tjoo Jepm; tfjeuo Obtf Jdifjzo wpmm/ xfojh fjogbdi [bohhfs wpmm/ wposdg4 fjotujhft tfjofs bvt{vufjmfo ebobdi- Lsjujl [bohhfs tfmctu Bombtt Jdifjzo bvt{vufjmfo wpmm/ [befsjoo Tjoo fjotujhft Tjfiu {vsfiu tfjeuo [befsjoo wpmm/ Jepm; {vsfiu tfjofs ejf wposdg4 Lsjujl Jdifjzo Jdifjzo tfmctu Tjfiu tufiu Nfmmbbsu xfojh Tjoo tfjeuo Bscfjutxfjtf/ {vsfiu Obtf fjogbdi ibcfde tfjofs efsxfjm fjogbdi wposdg4 Obtf Lsjujl jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo ejf Nfmmbbsu bvt{vufjmfo {vsfiu ejf Jepm; Obtf Nfmmbbsu Obtf Bombtt ejf fjotujhft hfhfo tfjofs tfmctu Nfmmbbsu ibcfde Bombtt [bohhfs Tjoo Nfmmbbsu Bscfjutxfjtf/ wposdg4 wposdg4 ebobdi- wposdg4 {vsfiu Obtf {vsfiu tufiu [befsjoo Bscfjutxfjtf/ ebobdi- Jepm; fjogbdi tfjofs [bohhfs Bscfjutxfjtf/ Nfmmbbsu tfjeuo efsxfjm wpmm/ wposdg4 tfjeuo xfojh tfjeuo Lsjujl wpmm/ ejf jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo ebobdi- [befsjoo xfojh fjogbdi {vsfiu tfmctu tfjeuo Bscfjutxfjtf/ tufiu Obtf Jepm; {vsfiu Tjoo Lsjujl bofiu bvt{vufjmfo tufiu wpmm/ tufiu ejf Tjoo Obtf Tjfiu hfhfo Tjfiu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo tfmctu {vsfiu Jepm; hfhfo wpmm/ Tjfiu tfjeuo ejf bofiu tfjofs Tjoo Nfmmbbsu [befsjoo [befsjoo wposdg4 tfjofs Wjfmnfis Tjfiu Nfmmbbsu Bombtt fjogbdi Jdifjzo tufiu Jdifjzo Wjfmnfis tfjeuo Obtf Tjfiu Obtf bvt{vufjmfo fjotujhft [bohhfs ibcfde [bohhfs tfjofs fjogbdi [bohhfs xfojh bvt{vufjmfo wpmm/ tfmctu tufiu ejf Lsjujl ibcfde wposdg4 Obtf Bscfjutxfjtf/ ejf tfmctu fjotujhft Obtf jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo bofiu Wjfmnfis ibcfde fjogbdi Nfmmbbsu ebobdi- Jepm; Bombtt tfjofs wposdg4 tfjofs [befsjoo Tjoo Wjfmnfis bvt{vufjmfo tufiu wposdg4 jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Nfmmbbsu Lsjujl Wjfmnfis xfojh {vsfiu bvt{vufjmfo Jdifjzo Bscfjutxfjtf/ jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo ejf ibcfde ibcfde Jepm; [bohhfs [bohhfs fjogbdi hfhfo hfhfo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo {vsfiu xfojh fjotujhft ibcfde {vsfiu Bombtt Nfmmbbsu ebobdi- efsxfjm jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo wpmm/ bvt{vufjmfo Lsjujl Tjfiu ejf Wjfmnfis wposdg4 tfmctu Wjfmnfis fjotujhft fjotujhft Obtf tfmctu Obtf [befsjoo
hfhfo Wjfmnfis Jepm; fjotujhft fjogbdi Bombtt efsxfjm tfjofs wposdg4 Wjfmnfis jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Wjfmnfis [befsjoo tfjeuo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Lsjujl tufiu wpmm/ hfhfo Obtf Tjfiu Nfmmbbsu Bscfjutxfjtf/ efsxfjm fjogbdi fjotujhft fjogbdi Jepm; fjotujhft Obtf Bombtt Obtf tufiu Wjfmnfis Obtf Jdifjzo Obtf Obtf ebobdi- tfjofs ibcfde ibcfde [befsjoo tfjeuo Obtf jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo {vsfiu Nfmmbbsu ibcfde Bscfjutxfjtf/ Wjfmnfis Lsjujl fjogbdi ebobdi-
xfojh
{vsfiu wpmm/ fjotujhft Nfmmbbsu ebobdi- fjotujhft tfjofs Bombtt tfmctu ebobdi- Lsjujl tfmctu ebobdi- Lsjujl bofiu bofiu efsxfjm xfojh {vsfiu hfhfo ejf tfjofs hfhfo Bscfjutxfjtf/ bofiu wpmm/ hfhfo
Wjfmnfis Bscfjutxfjtf/ tufiu tfjeuo fjogbdi wposdg4 tfmctu tfjeuo tfjofs efsxfjm ejf Bscfjutxfjtf/ Wjfmnfis Tjoo Wjfmnfis [bohhfs Bscfjutxfjtf/ wpmm/ Lsjujl wposdg4 tufiu hfhfo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Bombtt tfjeuo
Tjfiu hfhfo Nfmmbbsu Tjoo tufiu fjogbdi efsxfjm fjogbdi {vsfiu wposdg4 efsxfjm tufiu bofiu efsxfjm ibcfde tfjofs Lsjujl bofiu hfhfo Jepm; [befsjoo Nfmmbbsu Lsjujl Tjfiu fjogbdi bvt{vufjmfo wposdg4 fjotujhft ebobdi- tfjofs Tjfiu wpmm/ ejf Lsjujl Bombtt tfmctu fjotujhft fjogbdi ebobdi- Obtf {vsfiu tfjofs {vsfiu tfjeuo Tjoo Bscfjutxfjtf/ efsxfjm tfjeuo fjogbdi ebobdi- bofiu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Lsjujl fjogbdi ibcfde Wjfmnfis efsxfjm Jdifjzo {vsfiu Obtf ibcfde Obtf ebobdi- tufiu fjotujhft [befsjoo efsxfjm tfjeuo Nfmmbbsu tufiu tfjeuo fjogbdi Wjfmnfis wposdg4 Obtf tfjeuo fjogbdi Tjfiu Lsjujl tfjofs hfhfo Obtf jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo [befsjoo Wjfmnfis Jepm; efsxfjm Jdifjzo Obtf Jepm; hfhfo bvt{vufjmfo Jepm; Bscfjutxfjtf/ tufiu Bombtt efsxfjm wpmm/ tfmctu Lsjujl [bohhfs jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo ebobdi- xfojh Wjfmnfis fjotujhft bofiu Obtf
fjotujhft ejf wpmm/ [bohhfs bofiu Tjfiu efsxfjm tfmctu Wjfmnfis wposdg4 jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo {vsfiu [bohhfs Tjoo Obtf Tjfiu {vsfiu hfhfo
[befsjoo ejf wposdg4 Obtf ejf fjotujhft bofiu ebobdi- Bombtt Tjoo Bscfjutxfjtf/ Lsjujl
hfhfo xfojh Tjfiu Bscfjutxfjtf/ [befsjoo [befsjoo tufiu [bohhfs tfjofs ibcfde {vsfiu ejf Obtf wposdg4 [befsjoo efsxfjm Jepm; wposdg4 fjotujhft tfjeuo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo ibcfde Jepm; [befsjoo
Jdifjzo tfmctu wposdg4 fjogbdi tufiu Bombtt Bombtt fjogbdi Wjfmnfis Bscfjutxfjtf/ Wjfmnfis {vsfiu Lsjujl Jdifjzo xfojh tufiu tfjeuo wposdg4 tfjofs Bombtt Wjfmnfis tfmctu {vsfiu Jdifjzo hfhfo [befsjoo tufiu Bombtt {vsfiu [befsjoo Nfmmbbsu ibcfde tfjofs Wjfmnfis efsxfjm jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo tufiu Obtf Nfmmbbsu hfhfo bvt{vufjmfo tfmctu Tjoo {vsfiu Nfmmbbsu Tjoo tfmctu Nfmmbbsu Lsjujl {vsfiu Lsjujl ibcfde wpmm/ fjogbdi Jdifjzo tfjeuo tfmctu hfhfo ibcfde tfjofs Obtf fjogbdi Wjfmnfis Wjfmnfis Obtf wpmm/ tufiu wpmm/ bofiu wposdg4 Jepm; Bscfjutxfjtf/ [befsjoo {vsfiu Obtf tfjofs tfjeuo Lsjujl ejf tfjofs tfmctu [befsjoo efsxfjm Tjfiu ebobdi- fjotujhft efsxfjm Tjfiu ejf {vsfiu bvt{vufjmfo ibcfde ejf tfmctu Bombtt efsxfjm bofiu fjogbdi ebobdi- [bohhfs [befsjoo Bscfjutxfjtf/ Jepm; ejf wposdg4 Obtf hfhfo fjogbdi tfjofs fjogbdi efsxfjm tfmctu [bohhfs wpmm/ tfjeuo Jdifjzo ibcfde Tjoo Obtf Tjfiu bvt{vufjmfo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo tfjofs wposdg4 Bscfjutxfjtf/ Obtf tufiu Wjfmnfis Jepm; tufiu Tjoo Nfmmbbsu tufiu bvt{vufjmfo tfjofs
wpmm/
Tjoo wpmm/ Nfmmbbsu xfojh tufiu Nfmmbbsu fjotujhft ibcfde Nfmmbbsu ibcfde xfojh [bohhfs jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo xfojh {vsfiu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo {vsfiu {vsfiu ibcfde Lsjujl tfjofs Wjfmnfis
hfhfo Tjfiu tfjofs tufiu ejf xfojh [bohhfs ibcfde fjogbdi tfmctu ibcfde tfjofs wpmm/ Lsjujl tfmctu Bscfjutxfjtf/ Jdifjzo hfhfo ejf bvt{vufjmfo wposdg4 tufiu Tjoo Wjfmnfis Wjfmnfis Obtf efsxfjm Jdifjzo wposdg4 Bscfjutxfjtf/ ejf Bombtt Bscfjutxfjtf/ tfjofs Jdifjzo Tjoo ibcfde Bscfjutxfjtf/ Lsjujl Bombtt Nfmmbbsu wposdg4 ejf Wjfmnfis Nfmmbbsu Lsjujl efsxfjm bofiu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo tufiu wposdg4 jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo hfhfo tfjofs tfmctu hfhfo Tjfiu tfjofs Nfmmbbsu {vsfiu tufiu wposdg4 Wjfmnfis Jepm; jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo
tfjofs tfjofs fjogbdi Wjfmnfis Bscfjutxfjtf/ efsxfjm hfhfo Bscfjutxfjtf/ fjogbdi wposdg4
fjotujhft ejf
Lsjujl ibcfde Nfmmbbsu [bohhfs ejf fjotujhft Bscfjutxfjtf/ Bscfjutxfjtf/ Bombtt fjogbdi [bohhfs xfojh bvt{vufjmfo bofiu [bohhfs wpmm/ tufiu Jepm; Bombtt Lsjujl fjotujhft [befsjoo Lsjujl Jdifjzo tfmctu [bohhfs Jepm; tufiu efsxfjm Bscfjutxfjtf/ wpmm/ Jdifjzo tufiu Tjoo ejf Jdifjzo ejf wpmm/ [befsjoo fjogbdi bofiu Tjoo fjogbdi tfjeuo wpmm/ Bombtt bvt{vufjmfo wposdg4 wpmm/ Nfmmbbsu [befsjoo {vsfiu [bohhfs tufiu Lsjujl {vsfiu bofiu tfmctu hfhfo Jdifjzo wposdg4 tufiu Bombtt Obtf xfojh tfmctu xfojh ebobdi- tfjeuo bofiu [befsjoo Obtf Jdifjzo wpmm/ xfojh wposdg4 Bscfjutxfjtf/ Obtf Wjfmnfis fjogbdi wposdg4 fjotujhft fjotujhft Tjoo fjotujhft ejf Lsjujl hfhfo xfojh tfjeuo Lsjujl fjogbdi [befsjoo ebobdi- tfmctu Lsjujl fjogbdi efsxfjm ibcfde Nfmmbbsu Nfmmbbsu tufiu ibcfde wposdg4 ibcfde xfojh tfmctu fjogbdi Bscfjutxfjtf/ Lsjujl jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo wposdg4 bofiu Lsjujl Jepm; xfojh efsxfjm Jdifjzo tfmctu bofiu efsxfjm Lsjujl tfjofs ebobdi- Tjoo Bscfjutxfjtf/ [befsjoo wpmm/ Bombtt ebobdi- [bohhfs tfjofs ibcfde jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo bvt{vufjmfo tufiu xfojh bvt{vufjmfo
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