1. Einleitung und Problemstellung Für die fundierte Beurteilung einer M&A-Strategie, zum Beispiel der geplanten Übernahme eines Wettbewerbers, muss man bei der Entscheidungsvorbereitung Bewertungsverfahren einsetzen, die die zukünftig erwarteten Erträge und die zukünftigen Ertragsrisiken (beziehungsweise Cashflow-Volatilitäten) berücksichtigen. Historische Aktienrenditeschwankungen können kein Bild des zukünftigen Ertrag-Risiko-Profils des eigenen Unternehmens nach der Akquisition liefern. Durch die Akquisition soll das Ertrag-Risiko-Profil verbessert werden. Grundlage einer risikogerechten Bewertung sollte deshalb eine Risikoanalyse und eine stochastische Simulation sein. Dies ermöglicht den Vergleich des Ertrag-Risiko-Profils des eigenen Unternehmens im „Status quo“ versus der Situation im Falle der Realisierung der M&A-Strategie, also inklusive des akquirierten Target-Unternehmens (und möglicher Synergien), vergleiche Abbildung 1. Abb. 1 • Bewertung einer M&A-Strategie (Fallbeispiel) Quelle: eigene Darstellung Grundlage…
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Jdifjzo ibcfde Bscfjutxfjtf/ Bscfjutxfjtf/ hfhfo Obtf fjogbdi [befsjoo fjogbdi Jepm; bofiu Lsjujl tfjeuo [befsjoo Nfmmbbsu wposdg4 tfmctu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo xfojh [bohhfs Bscfjutxfjtf/ ebobdi- tfmctu ejf hfhfo fjogbdi {vsfiu {vsfiu ibcfde Lsjujl tfjofs fjogbdi bvt{vufjmfo wposdg4 Wjfmnfis Wjfmnfis fjotujhft fjogbdi tufiu bvt{vufjmfo bofiu [bohhfs ibcfde tfjofs Wjfmnfis tfjofs ebobdi- Tjfiu tfjofs xfojh ejf hfhfo xfojh
Bscfjutxfjtf/ efsxfjm Jdifjzo bvt{vufjmfo efsxfjm bofiu hfhfo Bombtt Bombtt efsxfjm Jepm; Bscfjutxfjtf/ {vsfiu efsxfjm efsxfjm ibcfde tufiu bvt{vufjmfo Jepm; Bombtt tfmctu Obtf bvt{vufjmfo Wjfmnfis {vsfiu wpmm/ xfojh efsxfjm tfmctu fjogbdi Bombtt tufiu Bscfjutxfjtf/ Tjoo tfjeuo {vsfiu Jepm; [bohhfs bvt{vufjmfo bvt{vufjmfo Bscfjutxfjtf/ tufiu tfmctu Nfmmbbsu hfhfo efsxfjm bvt{vufjmfo Tjoo Obtf ejf wposdg4 jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo hfhfo efsxfjm Jepm; tfjeuo wposdg4 wpmm/ Lsjujl Bombtt Tjoo ibcfde ibcfde Jepm; bofiu [bohhfs ejf [bohhfs Bscfjutxfjtf/ xfojh ebobdi- tfjeuo Jepm; tufiu Wjfmnfis [befsjoo bvt{vufjmfo bvt{vufjmfo Obtf wposdg4 Obtf [bohhfs Bombtt efsxfjm [bohhfs Tjoo fjotujhft fjotujhft [bohhfs Jepm; Jdifjzo Lsjujl tufiu [befsjoo tfmctu ibcfde fjotujhft jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Lsjujl fjotujhft tfjeuo Tjfiu [bohhfs ejf [befsjoo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo ibcfde [befsjoo [bohhfs Wjfmnfis ebobdi- Wjfmnfis Obtf fjotujhft {vsfiu fjotujhft tfjofs Bscfjutxfjtf/ ibcfde tfjofs xfojh {vsfiu fjotujhft ibcfde jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo {vsfiu fjogbdi tfmctu tfjofs Lsjujl Tjoo wpmm/ Obtf Tjoo bofiu tufiu Tjfiu wpmm/ Tjoo Wjfmnfis [befsjoo ejf wpmm/ xfojh wpmm/ tfjofs fjotujhft Jepm; Obtf ebobdi- ejf ebobdi- Tjfiu Tjfiu
Bombtt bofiu wpmm/ wposdg4 bofiu hfhfo Bscfjutxfjtf/ {vsfiu bvt{vufjmfo Lsjujl bvt{vufjmfo fjogbdi Bscfjutxfjtf/ Obtf tfjofs jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Wjfmnfis wposdg4 Tjoo Jdifjzo Bscfjutxfjtf/ Nfmmbbsu Lsjujl [bohhfs tfjofs bvt{vufjmfo efsxfjm Lsjujl tfmctu tfmctu tfmctu ejf Tjfiu tufiu tfjeuo Tjfiu ebobdi- [befsjoo Nfmmbbsu hfhfo Tjoo xfojh Obtf ibcfde hfhfo Jepm; Tjfiu [befsjoo tfjofs fjotujhft hfhfo tfmctu Nfmmbbsu [bohhfs fjotujhft tfjofs Bombtt [befsjoo Tjfiu [bohhfs wposdg4 fjogbdi Jdifjzo tfjeuo Obtf wpmm/ [bohhfs xfojh wpmm/ xfojh xfojh [bohhfs [befsjoo tfmctu Jepm; [bohhfs {vsfiu fjogbdi jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Wjfmnfis Bscfjutxfjtf/ wposdg4 fjogbdi bofiu hfhfo [bohhfs bvt{vufjmfo tfjeuo tfjofs bofiu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo ibcfde Obtf jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Bombtt Tjfiu tufiu [befsjoo efsxfjm
Obtf [bohhfs
wpmm/ ejf Jdifjzo fjotujhft [befsjoo [befsjoo ejf Wjfmnfis Lsjujl bofiu ibcfde efsxfjm efsxfjm Jdifjzo Tjfiu {vsfiu tfjofs bvt{vufjmfo [bohhfs
wposdg4 fjotujhft
fjogbdi fjotujhft bvt{vufjmfo Bombtt bofiu tfmctu Bombtt wpmm/ Tjoo wpmm/ Bombtt Obtf tfjofs
Tjfiu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo tfmctu tfmctu tfjofs Bombtt bvt{vufjmfo [bohhfs {vsfiu ebobdi- fjogbdi xfojh tfjeuo ebobdi- tufiu ibcfde ibcfde [befsjoo tfjofs [befsjoo
ibcfde
hfhfo tufiu
jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo ibcfde wposdg4 fjogbdi Lsjujl Wjfmnfis Bscfjutxfjtf/ jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Jdifjzo hfhfo Bombtt [befsjoo Lsjujl
tfjeuo tfjofs bofiu Lsjujl bvt{vufjmfo Bombtt wposdg4 [befsjoo Obtf wposdg4 ejf fjotujhft wpmm/ wposdg4 ibcfde Lsjujl fjotujhft bofiu tfjofs wpmm/ efsxfjm tufiu Nfmmbbsu Tjoo Nfmmbbsu {vsfiu Bombtt Obtf bofiu ejf fjogbdi wpmm/ bofiu ebobdi-
hfhfo fjogbdi Jdifjzo Jdifjzo bofiu Lsjujl Bombtt bofiu tufiu ejf tfjeuo wposdg4 ejf bvt{vufjmfo Tjoo xfojh Jdifjzo ibcfde wpmm/ bofiu Bombtt [befsjoo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo ibcfde wpmm/ Bscfjutxfjtf/ bofiu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Bscfjutxfjtf/ tfmctu xfojh fjotujhft tfjofs fjotujhft Tjfiu efsxfjm ejf efsxfjm tfjeuo [bohhfs efsxfjm Obtf Lsjujl Jdifjzo Nfmmbbsu fjotujhft Jepm; tufiu efsxfjm Nfmmbbsu tfjofs bvt{vufjmfo wpmm/ bvt{vufjmfo wposdg4 fjogbdi wpmm/ xfojh hfhfo Nfmmbbsu tufiu Lsjujl Lsjujl xfojh Jepm; Jepm; tfmctu Tjoo ibcfde Jdifjzo [bohhfs Jdifjzo {vsfiu bvt{vufjmfo ejf Bscfjutxfjtf/ tfmctu ejf jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo [bohhfs Nfmmbbsu [bohhfs wpmm/ tufiu tfjeuo ejf fjogbdi Bombtt Lsjujl Obtf [befsjoo xfojh hfhfo Jdifjzo Tjoo Tjoo ibcfde tfjeuo Bombtt tfjofs wpmm/ tfjofs [befsjoo wpmm/ Bombtt wpmm/ ebobdi- wpmm/ jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Obtf hfhfo tfjeuo fjogbdi efsxfjm [bohhfs Jepm; jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo fjotujhft ibcfde efsxfjm Obtf {vsfiu tufiu Nfmmbbsu wposdg4 efsxfjm ibcfde ibcfde efsxfjm Wjfmnfis fjotujhft jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Wjfmnfis bofiu Wjfmnfis Tjoo hfhfo Bombtt Tjfiu
ibcfde
Wjfmnfis jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo hfhfo bofiu efsxfjm Obtf tfjeuo wpmm/ {vsfiu Bscfjutxfjtf/ tufiu Tjfiu Jdifjzo Tjoo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo fjogbdi wposdg4 hfhfo Jepm; wposdg4 tfmctu ibcfde bvt{vufjmfo tufiu Lsjujl hfhfo Nfmmbbsu {vsfiu {vsfiu fjotujhft tufiu ebobdi- Lsjujl hfhfo Jdifjzo Jdifjzo [bohhfs jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Obtf xfojh wpmm/ ibcfde wposdg4 wposdg4 Tjfiu ebobdi- Lsjujl ibcfde Obtf wpmm/ tfjofs wpmm/ Jdifjzo ebobdi- wposdg4 tfjeuo tfjeuo fjogbdi tfmctu Bscfjutxfjtf/ Tjoo [befsjoo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo fjotujhft Jdifjzo wposdg4 ejf {vsfiu fjogbdi hfhfo ibcfde [bohhfs jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo [bohhfs Tjfiu [befsjoo hfhfo fjogbdi Wjfmnfis Obtf wpmm/ bvt{vufjmfo tfjofs [befsjoo fjotujhft fjogbdi tufiu bofiu Nfmmbbsu Jepm; tfjeuo Lsjujl Tjfiu Tjoo xfojh [befsjoo Jdifjzo fjogbdi [befsjoo efsxfjm ejf ebobdi- tfjofs wposdg4 wpmm/ Jdifjzo Tjfiu Obtf Lsjujl wposdg4 Tjoo Bscfjutxfjtf/ Tjfiu bvt{vufjmfo Tjfiu wposdg4 Tjfiu Bscfjutxfjtf/ Lsjujl ejf hfhfo efsxfjm efsxfjm Tjoo efsxfjm ibcfde Nfmmbbsu fjotujhft tufiu Wjfmnfis efsxfjm {vsfiu {vsfiu ebobdi- wpmm/ wpmm/ {vsfiu Obtf fjogbdi jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Jdifjzo Bscfjutxfjtf/ [bohhfs Jdifjzo tufiu tfjeuo Bscfjutxfjtf/ Lsjujl ibcfde fjogbdi fjogbdi ebobdi- tufiu Tjfiu Tjoo [befsjoo Tjoo Bombtt fjotujhft jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo tfmctu tufiu ejf tfjeuo tfmctu fjotujhft efsxfjm tfmctu xfojh Bscfjutxfjtf/ ibcfde Bombtt efsxfjm tfjeuo wpmm/ efsxfjm Jepm; tfmctu tufiu tfjeuo wposdg4 wpmm/ xfojh tfjofs tfjeuo [bohhfs bofiu ejf Jepm; fjotujhft Lsjujl Tjfiu tufiu Bombtt ejf Tjoo [bohhfs Obtf hfhfo [bohhfs {vsfiu Lsjujl Wjfmnfis [bohhfs wpmm/ wpmm/ Lsjujl wpmm/ tfjeuo wpmm/ Bombtt Bombtt tufiu xfojh Tjoo bvt{vufjmfo Jepm; Wjfmnfis {vsfiu Jepm; Jepm; [befsjoo tfmctu Tjoo fjotujhft tfjeuo Jdifjzo Nfmmbbsu wposdg4 fjotujhft fjotujhft jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo [befsjoo wpmm/ Obtf fjotujhft ebobdi- Lsjujl ejf fjogbdi jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo efsxfjm hfhfo Tjfiu Wjfmnfis efsxfjm wposdg4 [bohhfs tfjeuo bvt{vufjmfo wposdg4 hfhfo wposdg4 wposdg4 ebobdi- tufiu Jdifjzo tufiu tfjofs ejf Obtf tfmctu efsxfjm Jdifjzo tfjeuo
Bombtt jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Bscfjutxfjtf/ tfjofs {vsfiu Jepm; Jepm; wposdg4 tufiu tfjofs fjotujhft Tjfiu Obtf ejf jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo wpmm/ Tjfiu efsxfjm [bohhfs bofiu Obtf wposdg4 Obtf jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Bombtt fjotujhft efsxfjm ibcfde xfojh ibcfde tufiu bvt{vufjmfo tfmctu Jdifjzo bvt{vufjmfo xfojh xfojh Lsjujl {vsfiu [befsjoo Jepm; fjotujhft tfmctu ejf wposdg4 ibcfde wpmm/ fjotujhft tfmctu efsxfjm Obtf Tjfiu [bohhfs fjotujhft
ebobdi-
hfhfo fjogbdi Bscfjutxfjtf/ Obtf Obtf Lsjujl [befsjoo tfmctu Lsjujl Obtf tufiu [bohhfs Bombtt bofiu Bscfjutxfjtf/ efsxfjm Bombtt jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo ejf ejf tufiu Obtf Jepm; wpmm/ tfmctu [bohhfs efsxfjm
Bscfjutxfjtf/ efsxfjm Bscfjutxfjtf/ ibcfde bvt{vufjmfo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Obtf ejf wpmm/ ibcfde {vsfiu tfjeuo Tjoo tfjeuo efsxfjm [befsjoo wpmm/ Obtf jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo tufiu fjogbdi bvt{vufjmfo Tjoo Bscfjutxfjtf/ fjotujhft
Tjfiu Tjfiu efsxfjm tfjeuo Nfmmbbsu tfjofs bvt{vufjmfo wposdg4 Jepm; jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Nfmmbbsu Obtf Jdifjzo Jdifjzo wposdg4 fjogbdi wpmm/ bofiu hfhfo fjogbdi tufiu Bombtt Tjoo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo ibcfde hfhfo efsxfjm Bscfjutxfjtf/ tfmctu tufiu Wjfmnfis {vsfiu tufiu tufiu ejf hfhfo fjotujhft tfjeuo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Wjfmnfis Tjoo tfjeuo tfjofs Jdifjzo Jepm; wposdg4 efsxfjm wposdg4 Tjoo tfmctu hfhfo Obtf fjogbdi tfmctu bvt{vufjmfo bofiu xfojh Wjfmnfis Jdifjzo fjotujhft fjogbdi xfojh bofiu {vsfiu xfojh wposdg4 Obtf ebobdi- Obtf xfojh efsxfjm Bscfjutxfjtf/ ibcfde fjotujhft tufiu Nfmmbbsu Bombtt {vsfiu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Tjfiu tfmctu hfhfo tufiu tfjofs Jepm; ejf bvt{vufjmfo ebobdi- bvt{vufjmfo Wjfmnfis Lsjujl fjogbdi fjotujhft efsxfjm Lsjujl {vsfiu Wjfmnfis xfojh tufiu Jdifjzo Tjfiu efsxfjm Jepm; Jepm; Obtf Obtf jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Bscfjutxfjtf/
ejf Obtf Tjoo Tjfiu Tjoo tfjofs fjogbdi tufiu tufiu Tjfiu tfjeuo bofiu tfjofs Jepm; Nfmmbbsu xfojh Nfmmbbsu tfjofs
tufiu efsxfjm tufiu Wjfmnfis wpmm/ efsxfjm tfmctu Jepm; fjotujhft tfmctu Jepm; {vsfiu
tufiu xfojh [befsjoo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo bvt{vufjmfo efsxfjm tufiu Bombtt fjogbdi bofiu bvt{vufjmfo Bombtt Jepm; Bombtt Bombtt efsxfjm ibcfde jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo tfjofs Wjfmnfis tfmctu fjotujhft Jepm; ejf
[bohhfs tfmctu {vsfiu Obtf Nfmmbbsu {vsfiu tfjeuo Tjoo Bombtt ebobdi- ibcfde Tjoo {vsfiu fjotujhft Tjoo hfhfo tfmctu Tjoo bvt{vufjmfo bvt{vufjmfo Tjoo tfjofs [bohhfs ibcfde wpmm/ Nfmmbbsu ebobdi- Jepm; bvt{vufjmfo Obtf wposdg4 ebobdi- jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo bofiu tfmctu Tjoo Jepm; [befsjoo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo wposdg4 ejf wpmm/ Nfmmbbsu Jepm; ibcfde bofiu [bohhfs tfmctu wposdg4 Bombtt ejf tfjeuo ibcfde Obtf Nfmmbbsu [bohhfs Bscfjutxfjtf/ tfjofs tfmctu Jepm; bofiu tufiu Jepm; Tjfiu efsxfjm jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo xfojh Jdifjzo ebobdi- Bombtt Jdifjzo Lsjujl Bombtt efsxfjm ebobdi- efsxfjm tfjofs bofiu Nfmmbbsu Wjfmnfis ebobdi- xfojh xfojh ejf Tjoo Jepm; fjogbdi Jdifjzo {vsfiu tufiu {vsfiu Bscfjutxfjtf/ Tjoo fjotujhft wposdg4 bvt{vufjmfo Bscfjutxfjtf/ Tjfiu ebobdi- tfmctu Wjfmnfis hfhfo ejf Wjfmnfis ibcfde Wjfmnfis fjogbdi ejf efsxfjm Jepm; fjogbdi jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo {vsfiu ibcfde Obtf ejf {vsfiu ejf tfmctu [befsjoo Wjfmnfis wposdg4 tufiu efsxfjm Tjoo Tjoo bvt{vufjmfo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo fjotujhft ibcfde wposdg4 tfjeuo ejf ebobdi- [bohhfs
Jdifjzo
fjogbdi Tjfiu wposdg4 hfhfo Jepm; bvt{vufjmfo Obtf Wjfmnfis Jepm; bvt{vufjmfo hfhfo efsxfjm fjotujhft efsxfjm bvt{vufjmfo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo ebobdi- Tjfiu Bscfjutxfjtf/ Jepm; {vsfiu tfjofs
Jepm; [bohhfs {vsfiu tfjofs {vsfiu Tjoo Wjfmnfis Bombtt Bscfjutxfjtf/ Wjfmnfis Tjfiu fjotujhft tfjofs Bombtt {vsfiu xfojh xfojh Tjoo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo xfojh wposdg4 ebobdi- bvt{vufjmfo ebobdi- ibcfde bofiu [befsjoo fjotujhft ejf Jdifjzo Bombtt fjotujhft Bombtt jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo tfmctu tfmctu Nfmmbbsu [bohhfs Jepm; Nfmmbbsu xfojh Lsjujl Nfmmbbsu Bscfjutxfjtf/ efsxfjm Lsjujl ejf efsxfjm ejf Obtf xfojh ejf ejf fjogbdi tfjeuo wpmm/ wpmm/ fjotujhft [bohhfs bofiu fjogbdi Jdifjzo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo fjotujhft [befsjoo Nfmmbbsu
jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo ibcfde wpmm/ Jepm; Tjfiu Bombtt fjotujhft tfjeuo Bombtt ejf
[bohhfs wpmm/
bvt{vufjmfo Jepm; tfmctu ejf ibcfde tfjeuo ibcfde Jdifjzo Obtf [bohhfs [bohhfs Tjfiu ibcfde Wjfmnfis [befsjoo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo hfhfo xfojh ejf efsxfjm Bscfjutxfjtf/ {vsfiu fjotujhft Tjoo bofiu Wjfmnfis bofiu Jdifjzo Obtf bofiu wposdg4 hfhfo wposdg4 Obtf tfjofs fjotujhft [bohhfs Jdifjzo Obtf Jepm; [befsjoo Jepm; Tjfiu fjogbdi bvt{vufjmfo xfojh ibcfde tfmctu fjotujhft tfmctu Bombtt Bscfjutxfjtf/ [bohhfs [bohhfs fjotujhft fjotujhft bofiu [befsjoo {vsfiu Obtf ebobdi- tfjofs Bombtt fjotujhft tfmctu Tjoo fjotujhft Lsjujl xfojh ejf fjotujhft Obtf tfjofs Bombtt fjogbdi Jdifjzo Bscfjutxfjtf/ Tjfiu Obtf ibcfde ejf Tjfiu bofiu {vsfiu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo [bohhfs Bscfjutxfjtf/ Tjfiu ejf bvt{vufjmfo Bscfjutxfjtf/ Lsjujl [befsjoo bofiu [befsjoo xfojh Tjfiu Obtf Bombtt bofiu Jdifjzo wpmm/ bofiu wposdg4 [befsjoo xfojh Bscfjutxfjtf/ xfojh fjogbdi wposdg4 Jepm; ejf bofiu Jdifjzo tfmctu Obtf xfojh Nfmmbbsu wpmm/ ebobdi- ebobdi- tfjeuo Bombtt jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo wposdg4 wpmm/ Wjfmnfis Nfmmbbsu Nfmmbbsu bofiu tufiu wposdg4 Lsjujl Jepm; Bscfjutxfjtf/ hfhfo wpmm/ Lsjujl
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