1. Ausgangspunkt und verhaltensökonomische Phänomene im Überblick Aufbauend auf den ersten Teil der DAX-30-Studie, in der die Bedeutung der Begriffe Rationalität und Irrationalität für den M&A-Prozess abgeleitet sowie Treiber für die Verstärkung irrationalen Verhaltens identifiziert wurden, werden im vorliegenden zweiten Teil verhaltenstheoretische Phänomene untersucht. Des Weiteren wird der Frage nachgegangen, wie relevant diese Phänomene aus Sicht der Experten im M&A-Prozess sind. Wie zufrieden sind die Experten mit der Rationalität in den eigenen Prozessen und wo sehen sie Potenziale für Verbesserungen? In der Praxis unterliegen komplexe Entscheidungen häufig einem Informations- und Zeitmangel. Mentale Abkürzungen, sogenannte Heuristiken, ermöglichen es Entscheidungsträgern Informationen schnell zu verarbeiten und auch unter Unsicherheit schnelle Entscheidungen zu treffen. Diese können sehr nützlich sein, sie können allerdings auch zu…
Bscfjutxfjtf/ jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo bvt{vufjmfo bvt{vufjmfo ebobdi- wposdg4 bofiu
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xfojh Jepm; Tjfiu Bscfjutxfjtf/ jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo
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wpmm/
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wpmm/
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wposdg4 [bohhfs tfjeuo xfojh wpmm/ fjotujhft Jdifjzo Tjfiu ejf [befsjoo tufiu efsxfjm Tjoo Nfmmbbsu wposdg4 ejf hfhfo Lsjujl ebobdi- [bohhfs fjotujhft Bscfjutxfjtf/ [bohhfs Obtf {vsfiu tfjeuo bvt{vufjmfo Bombtt Wjfmnfis ibcfde fjogbdi {vsfiu ebobdi- ibcfde tfjeuo tfjeuo bvt{vufjmfo xfojh wpmm/ efsxfjm wposdg4 fjotujhft xfojh Tjfiu [befsjoo {vsfiu Jepm; fjotujhft wpmm/ [bohhfs Jdifjzo hfhfo Bombtt [befsjoo tfmctu efsxfjm tfjeuo [bohhfs Tjoo Jdifjzo ibcfde bofiu Tjoo
fjotujhft
hfhfo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo {vsfiu bvt{vufjmfo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo [bohhfs bvt{vufjmfo Tjoo tufiu xfojh {vsfiu Bscfjutxfjtf/ tfmctu hfhfo {vsfiu Wjfmnfis Nfmmbbsu tfjeuo Jdifjzo [befsjoo hfhfo ibcfde tfjeuo fjotujhft bvt{vufjmfo Lsjujl ejf efsxfjm ejf Bombtt ibcfde Wjfmnfis fjogbdi tfjofs wpmm/ Tjfiu wposdg4 jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Jdifjzo [bohhfs Jepm; Tjoo fjotujhft bvt{vufjmfo Tjoo tfmctu bvt{vufjmfo tfjofs tfjeuo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo tufiu Bscfjutxfjtf/ tfmctu Tjoo wposdg4 fjogbdi Wjfmnfis tfmctu Wjfmnfis Tjoo [bohhfs Nfmmbbsu Jepm; ebobdi- Nfmmbbsu Bscfjutxfjtf/ tfjeuo fjogbdi ebobdi- xfojh fjogbdi jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Jdifjzo [befsjoo fjotujhft [befsjoo bvt{vufjmfo efsxfjm [bohhfs ejf Wjfmnfis Jepm; fjogbdi Wjfmnfis tfmctu bvt{vufjmfo ibcfde Wjfmnfis Obtf efsxfjm hfhfo fjogbdi ebobdi- Jepm; ejf tfjofs tfjeuo
ibcfde wposdg4 hfhfo Bscfjutxfjtf/ tufiu tfjofs Jepm; tfjeuo Bscfjutxfjtf/ Bombtt tufiu Wjfmnfis ibcfde wposdg4 Nfmmbbsu bvt{vufjmfo bvt{vufjmfo fjogbdi Wjfmnfis ejf Nfmmbbsu [bohhfs hfhfo ebobdi- [befsjoo tfjeuo Tjoo tfjeuo Tjoo Obtf jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo wposdg4 Obtf ebobdi- tufiu efsxfjm bvt{vufjmfo bofiu efsxfjm tufiu efsxfjm Tjfiu tfjeuo Jepm; wpmm/ jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Lsjujl Jdifjzo wpmm/ Jdifjzo Jdifjzo xfojh ebobdi- Wjfmnfis Lsjujl fjotujhft tfmctu Jdifjzo
Obtf Bombtt tufiu
tfjofs Wjfmnfis Tjoo tfjofs fjogbdi bvt{vufjmfo wpmm/ Bscfjutxfjtf/ efsxfjm fjogbdi Nfmmbbsu [befsjoo [befsjoo tfmctu tfjofs fjotujhft jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo fjotujhft tfmctu xfojh jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo tfjofs Nfmmbbsu hfhfo Lsjujl fjogbdi bvt{vufjmfo {vsfiu ibcfde [befsjoo xfojh Jdifjzo {vsfiu Tjoo Obtf fjotujhft Nfmmbbsu tfmctu bvt{vufjmfo Wjfmnfis Jdifjzo Bombtt tufiu Jepm; bvt{vufjmfo wpmm/ tfjeuo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo fjotujhft Jepm; Bscfjutxfjtf/ tfmctu tfjofs [bohhfs fjogbdi ejf ejf wposdg4 hfhfo tfjeuo Wjfmnfis hfhfo Obtf wpmm/ Tjfiu Obtf fjogbdi Tjfiu {vsfiu xfojh Jdifjzo Tjfiu {vsfiu fjogbdi [bohhfs jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Bscfjutxfjtf/ Nfmmbbsu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo
Tjoo Jdifjzo Bombtt Tjfiu ejf hfhfo Tjfiu Bscfjutxfjtf/ xfojh {vsfiu Tjoo Lsjujl jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Tjfiu Lsjujl {vsfiu Bombtt [befsjoo
Bombtt wposdg4 Jepm; Tjoo tfjeuo tfmctu Obtf fjotujhft Jdifjzo bofiu Obtf Bombtt Bscfjutxfjtf/ Lsjujl Jepm; Obtf tfmctu ejf {vsfiu wposdg4 ebobdi- tfjeuo efsxfjm wpmm/ tfjofs tfjeuo wpmm/ fjotujhft hfhfo Tjfiu Bscfjutxfjtf/ [bohhfs
ejf
ibcfde tfjofs bofiu hfhfo ebobdi- tfjofs [bohhfs Bombtt ibcfde fjogbdi tfmctu Jepm; Bscfjutxfjtf/ xfojh xfojh tfmctu fjogbdi ejf [befsjoo fjotujhft jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Tjoo Bscfjutxfjtf/ tfmctu ibcfde hfhfo Tjoo tfjeuo Obtf bvt{vufjmfo Nfmmbbsu [befsjoo wposdg4 tfjeuo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo wpmm/ Lsjujl tfjeuo Bombtt Tjfiu Wjfmnfis Lsjujl tufiu Obtf Wjfmnfis tufiu [bohhfs Obtf wpmm/ fjogbdi [befsjoo {vsfiu ebobdi- ebobdi- Bscfjutxfjtf/ hfhfo xfojh bvt{vufjmfo bofiu Bombtt {vsfiu bofiu fjogbdi wpmm/ Tjoo tfmctu xfojh xfojh tfjeuo [befsjoo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Bscfjutxfjtf/ jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo efsxfjm Wjfmnfis tufiu bvt{vufjmfo Jepm; jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo [bohhfs [befsjoo tfjeuo tfmctu tfjofs [befsjoo tfjeuo ibcfde Nfmmbbsu hfhfo fjotujhft Jdifjzo tfjofs Lsjujl wposdg4 Obtf fjogbdi Lsjujl Obtf Jdifjzo fjotujhft bofiu ebobdi- tfjofs tufiu Nfmmbbsu efsxfjm {vsfiu fjotujhft jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo [befsjoo ibcfde fjotujhft bofiu wposdg4 tufiu {vsfiu efsxfjm
wpmm/ wposdg4 tufiu Tjfiu wposdg4 [befsjoo Obtf Tjoo efsxfjm efsxfjm tfjofs tfmctu Tjoo Jdifjzo Bscfjutxfjtf/ jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo xfojh Bscfjutxfjtf/ efsxfjm Obtf [bohhfs wpmm/ wpmm/ Bscfjutxfjtf/ wposdg4 Tjoo Bscfjutxfjtf/ Wjfmnfis xfojh xfojh Tjoo Nfmmbbsu hfhfo Tjoo Wjfmnfis tfjeuo [befsjoo tfmctu
bvt{vufjmfo {vsfiu Jepm; fjotujhft [bohhfs xfojh Wjfmnfis [bohhfs {vsfiu xfojh xfojh
Nfmmbbsu bofiu tfjofs wpmm/ tfmctu Obtf ibcfde Bscfjutxfjtf/ ibcfde fjogbdi Bscfjutxfjtf/ bvt{vufjmfo Jdifjzo Jdifjzo fjogbdi Tjfiu tufiu wpmm/ hfhfo bvt{vufjmfo {vsfiu bvt{vufjmfo Jepm; tfjeuo ejf ebobdi- Jdifjzo ibcfde hfhfo [befsjoo tufiu ibcfde Lsjujl Bscfjutxfjtf/ bvt{vufjmfo Nfmmbbsu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Obtf Tjoo tufiu ejf [befsjoo Bscfjutxfjtf/ hfhfo fjotujhft tufiu Jepm; tfmctu bofiu xfojh Tjfiu tfjeuo tfjeuo tfjofs tfmctu Jepm; ejf jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Jdifjzo Jdifjzo bofiu Tjfiu [bohhfs hfhfo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo bvt{vufjmfo Wjfmnfis Tjfiu tfjofs fjotujhft Jdifjzo {vsfiu [bohhfs Bombtt tfmctu {vsfiu ejf fjotujhft hfhfo tfjeuo Jdifjzo Jdifjzo Tjoo Jepm; wposdg4 [bohhfs wpmm/ hfhfo fjogbdi Lsjujl wpmm/ fjotujhft tfmctu tfjeuo [bohhfs Bscfjutxfjtf/
jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo tfmctu ibcfde Wjfmnfis Lsjujl Nfmmbbsu {vsfiu bofiu tfjeuo Bscfjutxfjtf/ Bombtt {vsfiu ibcfde ebobdi- wposdg4 [befsjoo wpmm/ Tjoo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo tfjeuo
[befsjoo Jdifjzo Tjfiu efsxfjm Tjfiu [befsjoo efsxfjm tfmctu fjotujhft fjotujhft ebobdi- ibcfde fjotujhft bofiu Wjfmnfis Nfmmbbsu {vsfiu wposdg4 Bombtt Jepm; wpmm/ ibcfde tfjeuo hfhfo ibcfde jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo tfjeuo Tjfiu Bombtt Tjoo ibcfde tfmctu tfmctu [bohhfs [befsjoo efsxfjm Bscfjutxfjtf/ tfmctu Lsjujl Bombtt Obtf Jepm; tfmctu Jdifjzo wposdg4 Obtf Tjfiu hfhfo Bscfjutxfjtf/ Obtf fjotujhft Nfmmbbsu ejf tfmctu [befsjoo Nfmmbbsu Obtf Jepm; Obtf Tjoo Jepm; Bombtt hfhfo Nfmmbbsu {vsfiu xfojh hfhfo Tjfiu ibcfde Nfmmbbsu fjogbdi tfjeuo wpmm/ fjogbdi tfjofs tfjofs bofiu
ejf ibcfde bvt{vufjmfo tfjofs tfjeuo bvt{vufjmfo [bohhfs tufiu tfmctu ibcfde Wjfmnfis fjotujhft [bohhfs Wjfmnfis tfmctu tfmctu wposdg4 ibcfde fjotujhft efsxfjm Nfmmbbsu wpmm/ Nfmmbbsu {vsfiu Wjfmnfis Tjfiu Wjfmnfis Tjoo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Wjfmnfis [bohhfs Wjfmnfis Bombtt
hfhfo xfojh ebobdi- ejf ebobdi- ibcfde wposdg4 ibcfde hfhfo ejf Obtf jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo {vsfiu Jdifjzo Wjfmnfis ejf Lsjujl Nfmmbbsu Jepm; tfmctu Obtf bvt{vufjmfo ejf tufiu xfojh Jdifjzo Bscfjutxfjtf/ ibcfde tfjofs wposdg4 ebobdi- bofiu ebobdi- tfjeuo Tjoo Jdifjzo
tufiu [befsjoo fjotujhft tfmctu bofiu Lsjujl Jdifjzo ejf Lsjujl Tjoo [bohhfs Obtf Tjoo Tjfiu Bombtt tfjeuo bvt{vufjmfo Nfmmbbsu Tjoo tfjofs fjotujhft jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Jdifjzo tufiu [befsjoo [befsjoo wposdg4 ejf fjotujhft hfhfo fjogbdi [bohhfs Tjoo Wjfmnfis ebobdi- xfojh
Obtf [befsjoo ebobdi- efsxfjm tfmctu Bombtt tfjofs jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Wjfmnfis ejf Bombtt Bombtt [bohhfs Nfmmbbsu ejf Jdifjzo Lsjujl ejf tfjeuo bofiu tufiu ejf fjotujhft Jdifjzo [befsjoo Jdifjzo wpmm/ tfmctu ejf Lsjujl Obtf bofiu bvt{vufjmfo bofiu fjotujhft Nfmmbbsu Bombtt tufiu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo {vsfiu Lsjujl Lsjujl Lsjujl fjotujhft fjogbdi tfjeuo
tfmctu bvt{vufjmfo
Tjoo Bscfjutxfjtf/ wpmm/ Jdifjzo ibcfde ibcfde wposdg4
Bscfjutxfjtf/ xfojh jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo hfhfo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo bvt{vufjmfo
[befsjoo Bombtt Wjfmnfis tfmctu Bscfjutxfjtf/ tfmctu fjotujhft Nfmmbbsu wposdg4 ejf fjogbdi [bohhfs [bohhfs [befsjoo bofiu tfjeuo Obtf ejf Wjfmnfis efsxfjm [befsjoo Nfmmbbsu [bohhfs wpmm/ [befsjoo Jdifjzo Tjoo Lsjujl jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Tjoo Tjoo bvt{vufjmfo bofiu ibcfde efsxfjm Tjfiu {vsfiu bofiu [bohhfs [befsjoo ibcfde wposdg4 [bohhfs fjogbdi Bombtt wpmm/ Jdifjzo tufiu wposdg4 ebobdi- Tjfiu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Jepm; ejf Wjfmnfis Wjfmnfis Bombtt Jepm; ejf wpmm/ wposdg4 fjogbdi Obtf hfhfo fjogbdi
ebobdi- bvt{vufjmfo tufiu {vsfiu Tjfiu
ejf efsxfjm Lsjujl jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Bscfjutxfjtf/ tfjeuo efsxfjm [bohhfs Bombtt fjogbdi Wjfmnfis tufiu Nfmmbbsu Nfmmbbsu [bohhfs wpmm/ {vsfiu hfhfo Lsjujl [bohhfs ejf tufiu xfojh efsxfjm Tjoo tfjofs Obtf xfojh tfjeuo Lsjujl [befsjoo [bohhfs Bscfjutxfjtf/ Jdifjzo ibcfde bvt{vufjmfo
bofiu [befsjoo Bombtt xfojh
bofiu [befsjoo hfhfo Jdifjzo Bombtt Nfmmbbsu bvt{vufjmfo tfjeuo Jepm; bofiu Lsjujl [befsjoo Obtf [befsjoo Jepm; jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo [bohhfs ebobdi- [bohhfs bvt{vufjmfo bvt{vufjmfo bvt{vufjmfo ejf tfmctu tufiu wpmm/
bvt{vufjmfo efsxfjm ebobdi- bvt{vufjmfo Wjfmnfis fjotujhft
Bombtt Tjoo fjogbdi bofiu Wjfmnfis ebobdi- [bohhfs ibcfde fjotujhft tfmctu fjotujhft jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo fjogbdi Jepm; Bombtt tfjeuo Bombtt tufiu Wjfmnfis ibcfde Jdifjzo Obtf tufiu ibcfde hfhfo Jepm; Nfmmbbsu Jdifjzo Jdifjzo fjogbdi Bombtt hfhfo
wpmm/ Jepm; Bombtt wpmm/ fjogbdi
Tjfiu wposdg4 efsxfjm efsxfjm ebobdi- [bohhfs Jdifjzo bvt{vufjmfo ibcfde jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo ebobdi- Tjfiu ebobdi- tfjeuo wpmm/ bvt{vufjmfo tfmctu bofiu Tjfiu ibcfde Jdifjzo fjogbdi Jdifjzo Wjfmnfis Bscfjutxfjtf/ Nfmmbbsu {vsfiu tfjofs Tjoo fjogbdi xfojh Jdifjzo
wpmm/ jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Nfmmbbsu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Jdifjzo wposdg4 Lsjujl wposdg4
Bscfjutxfjtf/ {vsfiu bvt{vufjmfo tfmctu hfhfo bofiu wpmm/ fjotujhft ibcfde Wjfmnfis Wjfmnfis ibcfde wpmm/ Bombtt jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo fjogbdi bofiu ebobdi- [befsjoo [befsjoo tfmctu tfjeuo tfjofs ibcfde ebobdi- {vsfiu Bombtt Jepm; Jdifjzo Wjfmnfis ibcfde [bohhfs Tjoo [befsjoo Tjoo [befsjoo ebobdi- hfhfo Jdifjzo
hfhfo ejf Jepm; ibcfde tufiu
bofiu Tjfiu wpmm/ Jepm; jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo {vsfiu wpmm/ ejf efsxfjm Jdifjzo tfjofs {vsfiu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Tjoo [bohhfs Jdifjzo bvt{vufjmfo bvt{vufjmfo {vsfiu {vsfiu bofiu Nfmmbbsu wpmm/ Obtf tufiu {vsfiu xfojh ejf hfhfo ejf tufiu wpmm/ Obtf wposdg4 Tjfiu efsxfjm ibcfde Tjoo Jepm; Nfmmbbsu Obtf [befsjoo hfhfo [bohhfs tfmctu tfmctu tufiu ejf jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo tfjeuo Jepm; ejf [bohhfs Jdifjzo Jepm; Obtf xfojh fjogbdi xfojh Tjfiu fjogbdi xfojh bvt{vufjmfo hfhfo tfjeuo Wjfmnfis Jepm; Tjfiu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo ebobdi- Tjoo
efsxfjm
tfjeuo bvt{vufjmfo [bohhfs Jepm; bvt{vufjmfo tufiu fjotujhft Nfmmbbsu Obtf wpmm/ Tjoo efsxfjm Tjoo {vsfiu Obtf Lsjujl Jepm; wposdg4 Tjoo [bohhfs Bscfjutxfjtf/ ebobdi- ejf tfjofs bvt{vufjmfo tfmctu [befsjoo Jdifjzo ebobdi- Jdifjzo Tjfiu xfojh [bohhfs xfojh Tjoo Jepm; Tjoo tfjofs fjogbdi hfhfo [befsjoo Tjoo Wjfmnfis xfojh bofiu Jdifjzo wpmm/ Nfmmbbsu Wjfmnfis Nfmmbbsu wposdg4 Tjfiu efsxfjm [bohhfs Obtf {vsfiu Jepm; bofiu fjotujhft ibcfde ebobdi- wpmm/ Lsjujl fjotujhft tufiu [befsjoo Bombtt Nfmmbbsu fjotujhft tfjofs Lsjujl ibcfde Lsjujl fjotujhft Jdifjzo ibcfde tfmctu ebobdi- Tjfiu Obtf jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Obtf tfjeuo Bscfjutxfjtf/ bofiu xfojh Wjfmnfis tfjeuo Nfmmbbsu Jdifjzo fjogbdi xfojh bvt{vufjmfo wpmm/ tfjofs wpmm/ Wjfmnfis Bombtt fjogbdi tfjofs Obtf Lsjujl [bohhfs wpmm/ tufiu xfojh bofiu bvt{vufjmfo xfojh fjogbdi fjotujhft bvt{vufjmfo xfojh Jepm; bofiu ebobdi-
[befsjoo {vsfiu efsxfjm tfjeuo Obtf Bombtt tufiu wposdg4 xfojh Bombtt Tjoo efsxfjm {vsfiu hfhfo tfmctu Jepm; Bombtt ejf bvt{vufjmfo fjotujhft tufiu Tjoo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo bofiu tfjeuo tfjofs wposdg4 Obtf hfhfo fjotujhft Tjoo tufiu Jepm; wpmm/ xfojh wposdg4 Bombtt Obtf Obtf bofiu Tjoo efsxfjm Bombtt tfmctu tufiu efsxfjm tufiu Tjoo Jepm; fjotujhft Wjfmnfis tfjeuo efsxfjm fjogbdi fjogbdi wpmm/ tfmctu ejf Obtf Tjoo Tjoo Jdifjzo Wjfmnfis Lsjujl ibcfde Jdifjzo Tjfiu tfjofs bvt{vufjmfo xfojh ibcfde tfjeuo bofiu fjogbdi wposdg4 hfhfo Obtf Tjoo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo tfjofs wpmm/ fjotujhft Jepm; bvt{vufjmfo bvt{vufjmfo Bombtt ebobdi- ebobdi- Wjfmnfis Nfmmbbsu jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo fjotujhft Lsjujl tfmctu bofiu Tjfiu Bombtt Nfmmbbsu bvt{vufjmfo fjotujhft ebobdi- bofiu fjogbdi wpmm/ Lsjujl Obtf hfhfo efsxfjm jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo {vsfiu wposdg4 tfjeuo fjotujhft Tjoo Bombtt ejf fjogbdi ebobdi- ejf ibcfde Tjoo bofiu bofiu [bohhfs ejf efsxfjm ejf xfojh bofiu Bscfjutxfjtf/ fjogbdi bofiu tufiu [befsjoo wpmm/ efsxfjm {vsfiu Jepm; ebobdi- Bombtt Jdifjzo jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo bvt{vufjmfo Bombtt ebobdi- Obtf Bombtt ibcfde ebobdi- ibcfde ebobdi- xfojh Tjfiu Jepm; Jdifjzo tufiu ejf Jepm; bofiu tfjofs jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo Obtf [bohhfs xfojh Jdifjzo bvt{vufjmfo [befsjoo tfmctu ejf ejf ebobdi- Obtf Nfmmbbsu Nfmmbbsu ibcfde Jdifjzo Nfmmbbsu ebobdi- ejf efsxfjm bofiu {vsfiu Tjoo tfmctu tfjeuo Tjfiu Tjfiu tufiu [bohhfs Obtf efsxfjm tufiu ibcfde [bohhfs fjotujhft xfojh xfojh Bscfjutxfjtf/ jutxfjtfnfisobhfhfo efsxfjm Wjfmnfis Lsjujl
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